The man who threw Biden under the bus before the latter did it to himself, politically.
Friday, January 17, 2025
In The End, It Wasn't Pelosi, It Was Schumer -- January 17, 2025
A Reply To A Reader's Concern About "Inflation Lasting Longer" -- January 17, 2025
Yes. Inflation will last longer. So, what's new? I think everyone knows that. But it's all relative.
US inflation rate, historical.
Investors
in the equity market will eventually be more interested in the economy
of the US and less interested in whether the Fed makes any more cuts
this year, once they realize the Fed won't be making any more cuts this
year. But they may not raise rates either?
I
remain fully invested in equities betting on the US economy and don't
give much thought to what the Fed does (for my personal investing). For
me, it's mostly a spectator sport. Jamie Dimon has interesting thoughts
on inflation today, in line with my thoughts, and quite strange for a
banker, particularly Jamie Dimon, to say that.
I
can't believe how good the market did the past two years with high
inflation, high interest rates ... and now more of the same?
My wife will love the return she is getting on her fixed income investments.
On
a completely different note: if the consensus is that interest rates /
inflation will continue to rise, better to buy a house / car now. The
$600 monthly car payment now (on a seven-year loan) or $3,000 monthly
mortgage on a 30-year house will look very, very "cheap" three years
from now. Those new car loans will increase to $750 / month and the
mortgages will increase to $4,500.
As
far as the end-of-year money Biden released, it was already in the
political pipeline -- just a lot of inside debates about how to spend it
-- and it will pale in comparison to how much Trump is going to spend
in 2025. And, if California wants any money for the fires, they're going
to have to agree to raising the debt limit or getting rid of it
altogether.The GOP seems better at doing this than the DEMS.
Tuesday, January 14, 2025
Friday, January 3, 2025
Auto Sales -- 2024
My not-ready-for-primetime reply to a reader who sent me the story about auto sales increasing year-over-year:
As an investor, it's always about a) volume; and, b) margins. If you sell 4% more vehicles y/y but your margins decrease significantly, one's profit (all else being equal) will fall y/y.So, the question is this: "did Ford have to do more discounting in 2024 to increase sales?"And the answer is, according to google AI:Also, need to compare with overall market. Earlier from the blog:All numbers need to be fact-checked, but in very general and in some cases, very round numbers, number of vehicles sold in the US by these manufacturers, 2023:
- Toyota: about 2.8 million vehicles
- GM: about 2.6 million vehicles (an increase of 14% y/y)
- Honda + Nissan: about 2.2 million vehicles [Honda, 1.3 million; Nissan, 0.9 million]
- Honda: an increase of 33% y/y
- Nissan: an increase of 23% y/y
- Ford: 1.9 million vehicles (an increase of 7.9%)
- Hyundai Kia: 1.65 million vehicles
That was 2023. But two data points stand out.33% increase y/y/ for Honda; 8% increase y/y for Ford.And if y/y (2023/2022 was 8%) and then this y/y (2024/2023 was 4% ....
********************
The big story, of course, the EV is dead in the US and its prospects don't look better with Trump in the White House. As Dan Rather would say the future of EVs in the US is slim, slim just left town.
Ford (F) is still paying an incredible dividend. And it certainly appears that the dividend is propping up the share price: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/f/dividend-history.
P/E: 11.
Market cap: $40 billion.
Friday, December 27, 2024
Berkshire -- Update -- December 27, 2024
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has increased its overall stake in VeriSign VRSN, a provider of Internet domain-name registry services.
Berkshire Hathaway insurance unit Geico and pension plans of other Berkshire Hathaway businesses bought a total of 143,424 VeriSign shares from December 20, 2024, through Tuesday, December 23, 2024, for a total of $28.5 million, an average price of $199.05 each.
Geico added 14,921 of the shares to lift its investment to 7,920,402 VeriSign shares, while the pensions bought 128,503 shares to boost their stake to 5,272,947 VeriSign shares.
Overall, Berkshire Hathaway now owns 13,193,349 VeriSign shares, according to a form Buffett’s firm filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
It remains the largest shareholder with a stake of more than 10%.Berkshire Hathaway didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the stock purchases.
VeriSign stock has been flat so far in 2024, while the S&P 500 has surged 25%.
Shares have badly underperformed the index in recent years as well. Since the end of 2019, VeriSign stock gained 6.6%, while the S&P 500 has soared 86%. Berkshire Hathaway also bought more VeriSign stock earlier this month, along with shares of Occidental Petroleum and satellite-radio firm Sirius XM Holdings.
American Credit Card Debt -- December 27, 2024
American credit card debt:
- As of the third quarter of 2024, the average American's credit card debt is $6,380, which is a 5% increase from 2023.
From CNBC today:
In general this would not include borrowing costs associated with housing and transportation.
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