Friday, February 20, 2026

Thursday, February 19, 2026

Stargate, Ohio, Softbank, LDCs, Powerplants -- February 19, 2026

Background:

Not only the largest natural gas power plant but the largest power plant, of any sort -- nuclear, coal, natural gas -- in the entire United States. 

Wiki: list of largest US power plants

  • Grand Coulee, hydro, 6,809 MW
  • Alvin W Vogtle, nuclear, 4,536 MW, 
  • Palo Verde, nuclear, 3,942 MW,
  • Browns Ferry, nuclear, 3,775 MW,
  • West County (Florida), natural gas, 3,750 MW,
  • W. A. Parish (Texas), natural gas / coal, 3,653 MW

SoftBank proposal:




 

The Brilliance Of Trump -- February 19, 2026


Harvard is in severe financial distress.
  • Trump's brilliance: how he "read" Harvard's Achille's heel;  
    • the union killing the Golden Goose; no sympathy


 


Monday, February 16, 2026

Vannevar Bush -- February 16, 2026

AI prompt:

Alan Turing. Development of computers. Things don't happen in a vacuum (no pun intended). Things don't happen overnight. Specifically, 1937 was a pivotal year and not just with Turing. From 1843 (Ada) to 1931, Vannevar Bush, almost a 100 years -- not much happening in those 100 years. Then Tommy Flowers in 1935 -- valves / vacuum tubes.  So you look back five to six years before that pivotal year. What was happening -- or better, perhaps -- what major geo-political-economic event happened five to six years earlier. In fact, it was about eight years but one gets the point: the market crash of 1929. I'm sure there are some observations / thoughts about those years ... 1929 to 1937 that brought us to that point. Thoughts?

Google Gemini

Friday, February 13, 2026

Norway's Wealth Tax -- February 13, 2026

Even without the wealth tax, I would prefer to live in Switzerland rather than in Norway.

The big problem is that the 1.1% wealth tax on net assets over $US 2 million is just part of the overall tax these two-million-dollar (US dollars) millionaires are paying. 

Even worse, $US 1 million is no longer all that much wealth in the big scheme of things.  

The big question is whether Norway has either a debt problem or a deficit problem:

Norway's wealth tax

Norwegian wealth tax. Story reported in The Guardian. AI prompt and reply:


 

In fact, whether it was good or bad / increase or decrease in tax revenue in short term, it is clearly a huge negative in the long term, for many reasons:

*************************
Wealth Tax

If the wealth tax is a detriment to the economy in a country like Norway, one can only imagine how bad the wealth tax would be to a state like California who is at risk of a major deficit in any given year.

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Fourth Industrial Revolution -- Google Gemini -- February 11, 2026

 

Fourth Industrial Revolution -- ChatGPT -- February 11, 2026

My thesis: for the mom-and-pop retail investor, the tipping point for investing "within the fourth industrial revolution" was in 2021 - 2022 -- a year or so after then "end" of the Covid-19 anxiety even though technically the fourth industrial revolution was identified in 2015 - 2016.

ChatGPT

Yeah—that intuition tracks. The conceptual “Fourth Industrial Revolution” (AI, automation, digital platforms) went mainstream around 2015–2016, but the retail-investor tipping point didn’t really hit until 2021–2022. Different clocks were ticking for institutions vs. everyday investors. A few reasons why your timing feels right:



Why 2016 ≠ the retail tipping point

2016 was narrative-level adoption.
That’s when AI became a serious boardroom topic (DeepMind/AlphaGo, early cloud AI services, etc.). But for mom-and-pop investors, the story was still abstract: “Cool tech, not sure how to play it.” Public-market exposure was limited to broad tech names and semis.

Retail tends to move when:
    •    products become visible in daily life, and
    •    returns become obvious in stock charts.

Neither was true yet in 2016.



Why 2021–2022 was the tipping point

1. COVID changed investor behavior, not just tech adoption

Lockdowns did three huge things at once:
    •    Time: people had more time to learn markets
    •    Access: Robinhood/zero-commission trading went mainstream
    •    Psychology: markets felt “democratized” (GameStop, AMC, crypto)

This created a brand-new retail cohort that:
    •    was younger,
    •    more speculative,
    •    and much more willing to chase narratives (AI, EVs, space, quantum, etc.).

AI benefited from that same narrative trading energy that fueled meme stocks.



2. The tech finally crossed from “infrastructure” to “products people could feel”

Before 2021, AI mostly lived behind the scenes:
    •    ad targeting
    •    search ranking
    •    fraud detection
    •    logistics optimization

After COVID:
    •    recommendation engines, automation, and bots were suddenly everywhere
    •    then ChatGPT (late 2022) made AI personally tangible

That’s when retail investors went from:

“AI is a thing companies use”
to
“Oh wow, this changes everything.”

That emotional shift matters a lot in retail flows.



3. NVIDIA as the retail “AI thermometer”

Retail investors don’t invest in systems—they invest in symbols.

NVIDIA became the symbol:
    •    clean story
    •    obvious revenue growth
    •    simple narrative: “AI runs on GPUs”

Once NVDA started ripping in 2023, it functioned like:

“Proof that AI isn’t just hype—this is how you get paid.”

That feedback loop (price → attention → more retail inflows → price) is classic retail tipping-point behavior.



4. Post-COVID narrative hunger

After:
    •    meme stocks cooled,
    •    crypto crashed,
    •    EV hype got messy,

retail investors were hungry for a new mega-theme that felt:
    •    transformative
    •    understandable
    •    not already “over” (psychologically)

AI checked all three boxes.



Why institutions moved earlier than retail (and always will)

Big money started positioning in:
    •    cloud,
    •    data centers,
    •    semis,
    •    ML tooling

years earlier—quietly. Retail tends to arrive when:
    •    revenue curves bend upward, and
    •    products enter culture.

That’s not stupidity—it’s just different incentives:
    •    institutions invest in capability
    •    retail invests in visibility



All four together created what feels like an overnight AI boom—but it was actually a slow fuse with a loud detonation.



Big-picture take (your instinct is strong here)

What you’re really noticing isn’t just “AI became a thing” — it’s:

When the story became tradable for regular people.

That’s the true retail tipping point.
Not when the tech exists.
Not when it’s useful.
But when it becomes:
    •    narratively simple,
    •    culturally visible, and
    •    attached to stocks that go straight up.

If you want, next time we can map this exact same pattern onto:
    •    the internet (late 90s),
    •    smartphones (2010–2012),
    •    cloud computing (2014–2016),
    •    crypto (2017 / 2021).

The cycles rhyme a lot.