Monday, January 24, 2022

Why Tesla, Rivian And Nikola Stocks Crashed Today -- Motley Fool -- January 24, 2022

The Motley Fool.

Lucie Motors is now worth more than Rivian

Lucid has overtaken Rivian's market capitalization for the first time since the latter company's IPO debut on November 10th, 2021. Originally sold at $78 per share, RIVN reached heights of $172 before a long and sustained slide brought it to the level around $65 where it rests today. Wednesday marked the first time that Lucid's market cap exceeded Rivian's, which it currently does by nearly $5 billion. As of writing Lucid Motors is worth $63.15 billion while Rivian sits at $58.30 B, making them the tenth- and eleventh-most valuable car companies in the world.

Rivian charged out of the gate at its IPO as the latest in a line of promising EV manufacturers with compelling products and promises of big deals to come in the future. The deals are still on and the R1T's still a very compelling truck, but the stock now trades 60% lower than it did at its all-time high of $172, taking the company from a $150 billion+ market cap down to around $60 B. There are a few factors responsible for this, as well as sell-offs seen across the wider EV market that are ongoing.


Sunday, January 23, 2022

Which Headline Does The New York Times Go With? January 23, 2022

Business as usual? Ukraine taken by Russia. Does the world continue buying natural gas and oil from Russia as if nothing happened?

If not, that takes a lot of oil off the global market.

Boston (ISO NE) burns a lot of Russian oil, as just one example.

Would Biden ban Russian oil imports to the US? The US imports more oil from Russia than the Soviet Union.

A few added bullets to the blog's post:

  • Top stories?
    • Ukraine coming to a head: it's "go" time for Putin. Now or never. It certainly looks like he's taking a page out of Schwarzenegger's playbook for "shock and awe." 
      • look at the forces being assembled on the border;
      • no logistical obstacles;if Putin goes, this will be over in 24 hours. 
      •  the most interesting thing: "everyone" is looking at what the US will do; has anyone asked what Germany or France will do? LOL. France won't do a thing. Germany knows NATO is a paper tiger. 
      • 40% of Europe's natural gas comes from Russia; a lot of winter left.
      • Biden's military option: US troops in eastern Europe, but not Ukraine
      • headlines: US sends troops to Latvia; Russia takes Ukraine -- which headline does The New York Times lead with?

Saturday, January 22, 2022

Cocktails

Link here.

Daiquiris and margarita are considered "sour" and can be moved into that column.

Friday, January 21, 2022

Catastrophizing -- January 21, 2022

Flashback: link here




Covid-19: The Beginning Of The End -- January 21, 2022

Updates

Later, 6:34 p.m. CT: CDC studies being reported today suggest really, really good support for vaccinations.

Original Post 

Unless there's no cross-reactivity / natural immunity across all the various Covid-19 variants, this suggests to me that this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. I first said that over a month ago.

UK's Boris Johnson recognized that. President Biden? Impossible to say.

But these graphs suggest it's over.

Every day that a new variant is not announced is a good day. 




Look at the huge numbers of cases, and no one seems to be over-reacting. I mean, look at those numbers from New York. Amazing. If every American doesn't have immunity by the end of February, this will defy all common sense and science. 

Of all the countries with regard to Covid-19, I think Israel is the most "screwed-up." It appears they have not figured this out at all. 


Despite the primary series and two boosters, Israel is now suggesting a fifth "jab," a third booster will be needed.

And their numbers are no different than those of Sweden, who correct me if I'm wrong, haven't done a thing in the big scheme of things when it comes to Covid. At least that's the meme.

Ohio, INTC, Chips, A Republican Governor And All That Jazz -- January 21, 2022

Ohio seems an unusual spot among the states so Ohio must have really, really played ball with INTC.

INTC is headquartered in California.

One would consider these states well ahead of Ohio:
  • California -- blue
  • Texas -- red
  • Arizona -- more blue than red
  • Washington state -- blue
  • Alabama -- red but ....
  • Upstate NY (Cornell, Ithaca) -- blue
  • New Jersey (Princeton) -- blue
  • Massachusetts (MIT, Harvard) -- blue
I don't "get" Ohio at all but haven't seen the reasons why INTC chose Ohio ... until now.

Here's the backstory: Here's how Ohio won a bid by Intel to build the world's largest chip factory.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Social Media -- January 18, 2022

Temperature curve: the human world will never control climate, we will be extinct long before then. Link here

Inconvenient, Bjorn Lomborg: new UK stats that despite temperature increased:

  • cold day deaths declined every year by 25
  • warm day deaths declined every year by 2


 

Monday, January 17, 2022

Are US Auto Manufacturers Doing Anything About This? January 17, 2022

Asia is winning the war for EV batteries -- link to ZeroHedge

  • The global electric vehicle battery market has grown to $27 billion in 2021 and is expected to expand further in the coming years.
  • The companies with the highest share in this new market are concentrated in China, South Korea, and Japan. 
  • Asian companies account for as much as 80% of global electric vehicle battery production. 

At present, the ten manufacturers with the highest market share in terms of battery capacity newly registered in 2021 are all headquartered in Asian countries, mainly China, South Korea and Japan. 

The industry's top five manufacturers - CATL, LG, Panasonic, BYD and Samsung - together account for over 80 percent of global automotive battery production.

Throw in Tesla and where are the following getting their batteries:

  • Ford
  • GM
  • Stellantis
  • Daimler
  • all the rest?

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

PC Sales Are Back To 2012 Levels, Up 34% From Their 2017 Nadir -- January 12, 2022

Link here.
  • The PC market grew 14.8% in 2021, shipping the largest number of desktops, laptops, and workstations in a single year since 2012.
  • It’s a noteworthy recovery for a sector that had been written off by tech investors as a sleepy field in decline as recently as a few years ago.
  • The six largest PC companies by number of units shipped in 2021 were Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple, Asus, and Acer, according to IDC.

From the article:

It’s a noteworthy recovery for a sector that had been written off by tech investors and operators as a sleepy field in decline as recently as a few years ago as smartphones became the most important and highest-volume product in the electronics business.

The recovery has been driven by lockdowns and the rise in remote work and learning during the Covid-19 pandemic, as households purchased new laptops and PCs for schoolchildren in virtual classes and businesses bought equipment for employees working from home.

The recovery also happened in a year that was marked by temporary shortages in PCs, especially during the fall, driven by supply constraints from a global chip shortage.

So many story lines.

Just wait until Apple introduces the colorful desktop iMacs this spring.

GDP Per Capita -- January 12, 2022

Chart of the day: how incredibly wealth the US is

  • check out North Dakota -- ND's GDP is greater than every country in the world except Luxembourg; and,
  • ND's GPD per capita is #6 among the US states


 

 

 

Berkshire Hathaway's Energy Reach -- January 12, 2022

From a reader this morning;


In the political arena, and for the US consumer, killing the Keystone XL, was a true travesty. 

In the environmental arena, it was an even bigger travesty. Faux environmentalists felt that killing the Keystone XL would kill western Canadian heavy oil. Nope. They found a work-around and record amounts of heavy oil is making its way to the Gulf coast. The short term work-around was CBR. The longer-term work-around was expansion of existing pipelines.

But for investors, killing the Keystone XL was one of the best things that could have ever happened. Who benefited? Investors in:

  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)
  • Enbridge (ENB)
  • BNSF (wholly owned by Berkshire Hathaway)

Now, let's take a look at a story I completely missed. From S&P Global, February 10, 2020. I do not know if these deals were all approved by regulators and were closed, but I assume they were. These were electric transmission lines, not crude oil pipelines.

Canadian and U.S. subsidiaries of Berkshire Hathaway Energy have agreed to buy all of the shares of Enbridge Inc.'s Montana Alberta Tie Line, a 300-MW conduit that can carry power to grids in both regions, according to regulatory filings in both countries.

In a Feb. 7 filing with a commission of the Canada Energy Regulator, Enbridge said it "wishes to advise the commission that it has agreed to transfer 100% of the issued and outstanding shares of MATL [Montana Alberta Tie Line] to BHE Canada Holdings Corporation pursuant to a share purchase agreement dated January 17, 2020, subject to certain conditions." BHE Canada is an affiliate of Iowa-based Berkshire Hathaway Energy.

On Jan. 31, another Berkshire Hathaway Energy unit, BHE U.S. Transmission LLC, applied to the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for approval to acquire the U.S. portion of the line. (FERC Docket EC20-34)

The Montana Alberta Tie Line, which went into service in 2013, is a 230-kV merchant line that and connects power grids in the two jurisdictions. While the system has two-way capability, it was mostly designed to move wind-generated electricity from Montana to Alberta, and all of the capacity moving north is secured under long-term agreements. The Canadian portion of the 345-kilometer line stretches about 123 kilometers to a substation at Picture Butte in southern Alberta, owned by AltaLink Holdings LP, which is a separate Berkshire Hathaway Energy subsidiary. The U.S. portion of the line runs to Great Falls, Montana.

I think the takeaways from this short note are pretty obvious and I won't elaborate.

Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Daimler Truck Group News -- January 11, 2022

So, apparently Daimler - Portland, Oregon, will produce two e-trucks:

From Schwab:

Saia announces partnership with Daimler Trucks North America to test electric box vehicle

Briefing.com - 11:01 AM ET, 12/21/2021
 
Saia announced that Saia LTL Freight has partnered with Daimler Trucks North America to test a battery electric Freightliner eM2 box truck in its Portland, Oregon pickup and delivery operations to see how the vehicle performs as part of a working, real-world fleet functioning in a commercial environment. Saia sits on DTNA's Electric Vehicle Customer Council and is evaluating how electric vehicles can support the company's sustainability goals. [Note: DTNA = Daimler Truck North America.]

SAIA:  SAIA LTL in Portland. "LTL" = less than truckload.

Link here to Daimler's eM2 website.

Monday, January 10, 2022

Covid-19 Coming To A Political Head -- January 10, 2022

I don't watch the news anywhere -- the only news I catch is what happens to cross in front of me while searching business stories, etc. But today, what little news I caught suggests things are coming to a head with regard to Covid.

Each day more and more Americans seem fed up with this whole Covid thing. 

The Democrats in Washington, DC, hold together on everything but it seems that unity is starting to break up. One wonders if the Dems are starting to see the mid-terms slip, slip, slipping away. Inflation. Gasoline prices. Covid out of control. "January 6" has come and gone.

The President seems to be walking away from all of this, turning it over to the states, telling Americans there is no federal, one-size-fits-all solution.

AOC, strident supporter of jabs and masks, flies to Florida, discos maskless and comes back to DC and tests positive for Covid.

Life-saving monoclonal antibodies are being doled out to the states but Washington, DC, but restricting supplies for Florida.

The GOP is finally trying to get Fauci, et al, to appear in front of Congress, explaining exactly what's going on.

And, now, the US Supreme Court has taken a case with regard to OSHA Covid mandates. 

Nothing specific, but it sure sounds like things are coming to a head, politically, and this variant is so infectious, by the time this page has 27 unique page views this virus may have burned itself out. 


Sunday, January 9, 2022

Update: European Covid Experience -- January 9, 2022

Link here

US Distributed A Record-Setting, Whopping 20 Million Doses Of Vaccine In Past Three Days; Up To 10-Times "Normal" -- January 9, 2022

Link here.

In the following table, I've hidden data for Sunday through Wednesday of every week, including only Thursday through Saturday. I've alternated red / black to make it easier to see the different weeks.

Generally, the US delivers anywhere from one million to six million doses of vaccine over those three days, most of it on Thursday / Friday. Six million doses had been the "record." Generally US distributions were in the two million to four million range.

This past week, Thursday through yesterday, Saturday, January 8, 2022, the US distributed over 21 million doses of vaccine.



A

B



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Saturday

January 8, 2022

639,717,695

7,142,040

Friday

January 7, 2022

632,575,655

0

Thursday

January 6, 2022

632,575,655

14,499,610

Saturday

January 1, 2022

614,979,805

-189,330

Friday

December 31, 2021

615,169,135

-189,330

Thursday

December 30, 2021

615,358,465

1,096,200

Saturday

December 25, 2021

610,744,278

-576,849

Friday

December 24,2021

611,321,127

-576,848

Thursday

December 23, 2021

611,897,975

2,862,430

Saturday

December 18, 2021

606,975,165

0

Friday

December 17, 2021

606,975,165

4,451,850

Thursday

December 16, 2021

602,523,315

2,647,100

Saturday

December 11, 2021

594,372,295

2,813,610

Friday

December 10, 2021

591,558,685

3,136,110

Thursday

December 9, 2021

588,422,575

1,951,500

Saturday

December 4, 2021

580,893,145

0

Friday 

December 3, 2021

580,893,145

2,585,610

Thursday

December 2, 2021

578,307,535

2,585,610

Saturday, January 8, 2022

RMDs -- The New 2022 Rules (IRS, 2021)

Link here.

The finalized rules go into effect on January 1, 2022. This rule change is in addition to the CARES Act waiving 2020 RMDs, the SECURE Act increasing the RMD age to 72, and new post-death distribution rules. RMD rules don't apply to Roth IRAs and any amounts in Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).
Other links:

Disclaimer: this is not a site for providing legal, financial, or tax advice. I do this to help me keep track of what's going on. I often misunderstand things / misread things. And, my hunch, no matter how "clear" the IRS thinks their publications are, there will still be a lot of questions.

For me, the two biggest areas of RMDs have to do with inherited IRAs and personal IRAs. My wife is about my same age and their are no heirs involved with regard to our personal IRAs. So, it's pretty straightforward, except for inherited IRAs.

#1: Roth IRAs are not affected. RMDs do not apply to Roth IRAs or Health Savings Accounts.

#2: Personal IRAs -- new longevity tables for 2022. Age 72 is the age which RMDs must be taken. And not six months into the year following per the old rules, or however, it was written. If one turns 72 years of age any time in 2022, one must start taking RMDs in calendar year 2022. The IRS does provide a grace period for one's first time RMD, to April 1 of the following year.

From the johnston link above:

The easiest change to implement is for those account owners taking lifetime RMDs based on the Uniform Lifetime Table. The Uniform Lifetime Table is a “recalculating” table. This means that each year a person will go back to the table to find his age and corresponding life expectancy factor. This new factor is then divided into the December 31 account balance from the previous year to compute the RMD. Since those individuals using the Uniform Lifetime Table are recalculating every year, identifying the appropriate number is straightforward; just go to the chart based on your age as of December 31st of the RMD year. [May turns 73 in 2022; her divisor is: 26.5.]

#3: Where it gets complicated -- inherited IRAs.

#4: The ten-year rule -- most beneficiaries need to deplete inherited IRAs that were inherited in calendar year 2020 (the owner of the traditional IRA died in 2020). 

#5: The ten-year does not apply to those who inherited IRAs on or prior to December 31, 2019. This seems to have been a source of confusion (or maybe something changed) prior to the new rules published by the IRS.

$6: Traditional IRAs inherited on or prior to December 31, 2019, two things --

  • longevity tables / divisors;
  • the "re-set"

Break, break.

There are three RMD life expectancy tables and they were all revised (IRS, 2021):

  • Uniform Lifetime Table -- applies to my personal traditional IRA; be careful; I believe this table is now updated every year;
  • Joint (and Last Survivor) Life Expectancy Table
  • Single Life Expectancy Table -- applies to inherited IRAs

Wow, the rules for those who use the "Single Life Expectancy Table" couldn't be more confusing or wordy, but for me, it's imply the last sentence that's important: "This table is used to calculate annual RMDs from inherited IRAs fro beneficiaries who inherited prior to the SECURE Act in 2020."

2018: the year my father died and I inherited his small IRA that year, before the Secure Act of 2020.

2020: my mother died in late 2020, after the Secure Act of 2020.

#7. The inherited IRA from my father: the longevity table / divisor has changed with the new 2021 rules; and, in addition, there is a re-set, both of which are pretty much "used" simultaneously to determine the RMD for 2022. See next, (#8):

#8: from the cpajournal link above:

In general, if the IRA owner dies after the required beginning date (RBD), in the year following the death, the designated beneficiary can calculate the RMD using the designated beneficiary’s life expectancy on the single life table
The designated beneficiary’s life expectancy is measured using the beneficiary’s age as of the beneficiary’s birthday in the calendar year immediately following the calendar year in which the individual died. [My father died in 2018, therefore the beneficiary age I use is my age in 2019, or 68 years old.] 
[My divisor for age 68 years of age is: 18.6.]
In subsequent calendar years, the applicable distribution factor (life expectancy factor) is reduced by one for each calendar year that has elapsed after the calendar year immediately following the calendar year of the individual’s death. [2019, age 68, divisor is 18.6; for 2020, my divisor reduced by "1" is 17.6. No RMDs required in 2020. In 2021, my divisor was reduced by another "1" or 16.6. My RMD was already established and taken by the time the IRS published the new rules. For 2022, my divisor is reduced by another "1" and will be 15.6 and the RMD is based on the value of the inherited IRA as of December 31, 2021. Once this number is determined in 2019, one never goes back to any table; one simple subtracts "1" from the previous year's divisor.]
The new regulations will require a one-time reset; this is better understood with an example. See example at the link.

Note: the ten-year rule on the inherited IRA from my dad does not apply to me, but it does apply to the heir(s) who inherit that IRA from me.

#9: As noted, the ten-year rule does not apply to me with regard to the IRA I inherited from my dad. If there is anything left in that IRA when I did, the ten-year rule will apply to the heir who inherits this IRA.

#10: for the traditional IRA I inherited from my mother, the rules are much simpler: RMDs are not required ever but the IRA must be depleted within ten years of my inheriting that IRA. 

#11: Bottom line for 2022 --

  • my inherited IRA from CARL: a divisor of 15.6 based on value of IRA on December 31, 2019;
  • my inherited IRA from RUTH: no RMDs required; must be depleted NLT than 2030 (exact date to be determined)

Tuesday, January 4, 2022

Ten Best Performing Commodities Of 2021

Top ten best performing commodities of 2021 in random order:

  • crude oil
  • propane
  • naphtha
  • ethanol
  • coal
  • coffee
  • lithium
  • oat
  • gasoline
  • heating oil

Okay, if you got these ten, good for you.

Now put them in order. 

Answer here.

Monday, January 3, 2022

Paluxy River -- Texas -- January 3, 2021

Wiki entry.
The Paluxy River, also known as Paluxy Creek, is a river in the U.S. state of Texas. It is a tributary of the Brazos River. It is formed by the convergence of the North Paluxy River and the South Paluxy River near Bluff Dale, Texas in Erath County and flows a distance of 29 miles before joining the Brazos just to the east of Glen Rose, Texas in south central Somervell County.

It is best known for numerous dinosaur footprints found in its bed near Glen Rose at the Dinosaur Valley State Park. The Paluxy River became famous for controversy in the early 1930s when locals found dinosaur and supposed human footprints in the same rock layer in the Glen Rose Formation, which were widely publicized as evidence against the geological time scale and in favor of young-Earth creationism. However, these anachronistic "human" footprints have been determined to be elongated dinosaur tracks, river scour marks, and hoaxes.

Native American Placenames of the Southwest. Link here.  

Dinosaur Highway: A History of Dinosaur Valley State Park. Link here.

Bottom line: "Paluxy" is a place name named after an Indian chief or local tribe from this area at the time the river was named. It is "identical" to the etymology of Biloxi, Mississippi.

Link here.

Link here:

Biloxi Indians.

The Biloxi Indians (also written Baluxa, Beluxi, Bilocchi, Bolixe, Paluxy, and many other names by European chroniclers) were Siouan speakers who were first recorded living near present Biloxi, in southern Mississippi. 
Since they were the southernmost speakers of the Sioux language and were surrounded by Muskhogean-speaking groups, it is believed that they migrated from the north at an earlier unknown date. 
The Biloxis were matrilineal. 
While they probably lived in tents in the North, a French observer reported that in Mississippi they lived in long houses with mud walls and bark roofs; they made pottery, baskets, wooden bowls, and bone and horn implements. About 1763 some of the Biloxis moved westward to western Louisiana. 
In 1828 there were twenty families on the east bank of the Neches River in what is now Angelina County, Texas, in the area of present Biloxi Creek. 
The Biloxis were never numerous. Their westward movements, like those of many migratory Gulf Coast groups in early historical times, are attributed to pressure from Europeans. Like the Alabama, Coushatta, and Caddoan tribes with which the Biloxis allied themselves in East Texas, the Biloxis were reputed to have "no pretensions to soil, and were on friendly terms with the people of the Republic." 
However, in 1836 the Biloxis appeared as associates of the Cherokees in the treaty of February 23 at Chief Bowl's village. In 1837 a committee report of the Texas Senate located the Biloxis and their allies together in the Nacogdoches and Liberty counties, estimating their strength at "150 warriors." 
When Albert Sidney Johnston and President Mirabeau B. Lamar declared war on the Cherokees and killed Bowl, the rout was easily extended to other East Texas tribes such as the Biloxis, many of whom were harried from Texas into Arkansas by July 25, 1839. 
In 1843, however, other Biloxis who had moved westward signed the treaty of September 29 with the Republic of Texas at Bird's Fort on the Trinity River. In 1846 Butler and Lewis found a Biloxi camp on Little River in Bell County. Other Biloxis moved farther west, and were encountered later as associates of the Seminoles as far west as Brackettville, Texas, and as far south as Nacimiento, Coahuila. Families and individuals also lived with the Choctaws and Creeks in Indian Territory and among the Alabama-Coushattas near Livingston, Texas.