Tuesday, February 28, 2023

All That Inflation Talk On CNBC Is Tedious -- February 28, 2023

A reader took exception to my comment that all the talk on inflation on CNBC is tedious.

My reply:

1. You are absolutely correct: we all see things through different filters.
2. I was just taken aback by the CNBC comment today about the high cost of transportation (to me it sounded like just another meme, another cliche). I had just come back from an early morning errand in which I had to drive, couldn't bike or walk (and no public transportation) and saw regular gasoline down to $2.58. That really surprised me, how fast the price of gasoline has dropped. Other readers have told me the price of gasoline is the #1 consumer item that Americans see every day.
3. But the more interesting story, as noted, is how "we all see things through different filters."
4. In addition to my "retirement" filter, my thickest (?) filter that of growing up in Williston -- six kids and my mom had literally "no" money on my dad's meager salary -- and somehow she managed, and managed quite well. So, that's my thickest (?) filter. All six kids are college graduates -- not an inconsequential expense for my parents.
5. My experience growing up in Williston contrasts with the lead story in The WSJ about credit card debt: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2023/02/credit-card-debt-wsj-february-26-2023.html, at the link scroll down for the "Disney story."
6. At most, we took one vacation a year (to the Black Hills) and some years we didn't even get that vacation.
7. So, yes, inflation is there. But inflation is only one aspect of one's life.
8. Home sales? Home sales jumped by the most since June 2020: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2023/02/without-comment-home-sales-and.html.
9. I'll post another graphic (sometime this week if the spirit moves me) that helps me put things in perspective.
10. By the way, it seems that every guest on CNBC -- successful CEOs -- today have started to pivot. While typing this CNBC is on in the background. "All" have said that a "recession" looks a lot less likely and inflation has come down significantly since the high-water mark of 9% last summer.
11. But, yes, my perspective -- through my life filters -- are different from others.
12. Oh, I almost forgot -- one of my biggest filters -- living in a very, very pro-growth state and a state that seems to exhibit incredible growth. That has to affect my outlook, compared to living in downtown Detroit. On top of that, I'm living in one of the most vibrant areas of Texas, two (?) miles west of DFW in an area called the Golden Triangle
13. Wow, I can't quit. Another huge filter was my summer job as a college student selling dictionaries door-to-door in a NYC suburb. I have never had a tougher summer .....
14. All those filters affect my perspective on the American economy. And I haven't even gotten to the "active duty military" filters -- but that gets far afield ...
15. Anyway, I'm on way to the pool ...

Later: random thoughts --

  • grandparents who lived through the great depresssion
  • grandparents who lived through two world wars, a great depression, and the Spanish flu
  • parents who lived through one world war, two pandemics (Spanish flu and Covid)
  • contemporaries who "lived" through Vietnam, Richard Nixon, and Jimmy Carter
  • contemporaries who lived through the high-inflation years, 1974 - 1981 (or whenever they were)
  • all this talk of inflation is tedious

Global, link here


Sunday, February 26, 2023

EV Sales -- Germany -- Update -- February 26, 2023

From social media.

Covid-19 Source -- February 26, 2023

This is so cool. If Biden needs leverage when dealing with China, what might be help? Yup, you guessed it, the WSJ article over the weekend, though incredibly weak, got the response for which the administration hoped. It's now at the level of the Oval Office: someone in Biden's cabinet re-opened the remote (as they say, "low confidence") possibility that Covid-19 was engineered in China and escaped from a lab in Wuhan.  

I get a kick out of this: folks who can see conspiracy in everything, can't connect the dots in the WSJ article.

Link here

Two Yergin Links For The Archives -- February 26, 2023

Peak oil debunked, MIT Technology Review, September 22, 2011.

There will be oil, The Wall Street Journal, September 17, 2011. 

Interview, The Motley Fool, October 5, 2021. 

The "Oil Drum" (peak oil) has trouble with Daniel Yergin, September 22, 2011. 

The "Oil Drum" threw in the towel some years ago -- about the time the rest of saw the collapse of Hubbert's theory.

Monday, February 20, 2023

Nolo Contendere -- February 20, 2023

The most he can "get": 18 months.

I would plead "no contest," go to prison and write a book. Or a play. Or a movie.

Eighteen months will go by quickly. The first month will be "in-processing" and the last month will be "out-processing."

And that's the max. The judge could be lenient and him 150 hours community service.

Fox News Medical Advisor: Get The Vaccine -- Natural Immunity From Prior Infection Is Fleeting -- February 20, 2023

Updates

Later, 6:25 p.m. CT: by the way, today, The WSJ is reporting the same thing but in a more appropriate journalistic style.

Original Post

Major Covid-19 study finds as reported by Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/health/prior-covid-infection-protection-vaccines-new-study):

  • natural immunity may protect from re-infection for up to 40 weeks for some folks; much shorter for other folks (the study only went out as far as 40 weeks);
  • protection from reinfection via natural immunity was highest for the original strain (which is no longer with us) and the older variants (alpha, beta and delta) which are no longer a public health threat;
  • protection from omicron BA.1 variant -- which is starting to burn itself out -- through natural immunity dropped to 36% -- less protection than an mRNA vaccine (around 43%);
  • protection from severe disease through natural immunity was high across all variants but declined over all variants (all of which have burned out and are no longer a public health issue, except perhaps the omicron BA.1 variant where protection against severe disease through natural immunity dipped the fastest); in other words, natural immunity through prior infection with Covid-19 is fleeting and the vaccine is still the gold standard.


Streaming Wars -- Monday, February 20, 2023

Link here. I may. e missing but I don't see "Paramount" or "Paramount+" in the graphic below. I may be wrong, but I consider Paramount and Peacock streaming, though some might consider the two cable. But I capture Paramount / Peacock via "streaming" and not through cable.


Paramount (CBS) vs Peacock (NBC).

Anyone comparing Paramount / Peacock with Netflix has no idea what she is talking about. Peacock and Paramount are two very different animals than Netflix. I'm not sure they are even cousins much less siblings.

Which should you pick? Long, long review (which no one will read) mostly because the site is cluttered with ads (clickbait). In addition, the writer waffles: bottom line -- it's your choice, try them both out. Their words, not mine.

Maersk Exits Russia -- February 20, 2023

Link here.

Going back to 1945 it took Russia seventy-five years to get where they were two years ago on the world stage.

Now lost. Completely.

Today:



Sunday, February 19, 2023

Dated Brent To Include Texas Intermediate -- First Time Ever -- 23 Million Bbls Storage Added -- 6/23/23

Naming

We'll still call it "Brent" and "Dated Brent," but in fact "Dated Brent/Brent" will be "WTI 2" as of June 23, 2023.

The addition of WTI to Brent explains a lot of the recent Biden administration policy decisions regarding crude oil.

Updates

February 15, 2023: WTI - Brent update. This is a huge story. Link here. How big a deal is this? Former President George Bush will be attending the summit.

The inclusion of US benchmark crude WTI into the Brent complex draws closer, and the impact to that market is likely to be "huge" by boosting the physical volume into Europe's benchmark.
"It's really WTI setting this marginal price for light sweet crude in Europe," said Argus' vice-president of business development James Gooder today at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas.
The market opted to include WTI, over Norwegian grade Johan Sverdrup, into Brent, but the light sweet US grade is poised to become the most important part of the crude basket. "It's more a case of WTI absorbing Brent," said Gooder. "Overtaking and subsuming Brent into itself."

Original Post

I hope RBN Energy does an encore presentation with regard to Dated Brent and how it will change on June 23, 2023 -- 6/23/23. I doubt that date was chosen randomly. 6/23/23.

RBN Energy had a two-part series on this subject last year; I archived the two blogs.

I'm too tired to discuss this tonight but will post the links so I can clear my in-box.

Perhaps, start here: US influence on global oil prices is growing, Irina Slav, February 16, 2023.

The "white paper" and how the decision was made. It came down to two finalists: Johan Sverdrup and WTI Midland (and one can substitute Bakken Light Sweet here).

Two articles, both of which might be behind a paywall:

  • SPGlobal, June 8, 2022: Platt to include WTI Midland in Dated Brent, related assessments from June 2023; Nick Coleman, (look at the date; wow).
  • Bloomberg, February 14, 2022: US crude to help set world's most vital oil price fromm 2023, Alex Longley and Sherry Su (look at the date; wow).

And here we go: the data points, from Quantum Commodity Intelligence, October 20, 2022:

S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts) announced this week it will include six more locations as loading terminals for WTI Midland crude oil in its Dated Brent and Cash BFOE benchmarks, coming into effect for June 2023 deliveries.

The new additions are Energy Transfer Houston, Flint Hills Ingleside, Seabrook Logistics, Buckeye South Texas Gateway, Eagle Ford Terminals Corpus Christi and Pin Oak Corpus Christi.

Sellers will be able to nominate WTI Midland meeting Platts specification loaded from the additional terminals for inclusion into the Dated Brent/Cash BFOE assessment process.

The new terminals add more than 20 million barrels of storage capacity available for WTI Midland deliverable against the long-standing North Sea benchmark, taking the total to nearly 23 million barrels.

Platts previously announced last month the NuStar Corpus Christi, Texas North Beach terminal as the first loading storage site accepted for WTI Midland.

Platts said in June this year it would broaden the basket of Dated Brent grades to include the WTI Midland crude from June 2023.

”The decision marks a major milestone for the inclusion of US WTI Midland in the Brent complex, the first time a crude grade from outside of the North Sea will be reflected in the complex and the Dated Brent benchmark,” said S&P Global in a statement at the time.

The Intercontinental Exchange, which hosts the ICE Brent futures contract, announced in July it plans to include WTI Midland in calculations for its Brent Index from June 2023 and increase the cargo size to 700,000 barrels.

The following details are available for each loading terminal:

Energy Transfer Houston Terminal: Houston, Texas, is wholly owned by HFOTCO, LLC, a subsidiary of Energy Transfer LP. It handles crude oil and petroleum products. The terminal has 12 docks, including two that can load up to a Suezmax size vessel and 18.2 million barrels of storage capacity, 7 million barrels of which is for crude oil storage.

Seabrook Logistics Terminal: Seabrook, Texas, is partially owned by Magellan OLP, L.P. and LBC Bayport Terminal, LLC. It handles only crude oil. The terminal has two docks that can fit up to an Aframax-size vessel and 3.996 million barrels of storage capacity, about 3 million barrels of which is for WTI Midland storage.

Flint Hills Resources Ingleside: Corpus Christi, Texas, is wholly owned by Flint Hills Resources Ingleside, LLC, a subsidiary of Koch Industries, Inc. It handles only crude oil. The terminal has two docks, including one that can fit up to a Suezmax-size vessel and 3 million barrels of storage capacity.

Eagle Ford Terminals Corpus Christi: Corpus Christi, Texas, is partially owned by Plains Marketing L.P. and Enterprise Products Operating LLC. It handles only crude oil. The terminal has two docks, including one that can fit up to a Suezmax-size vessel and 1.260 million barrels of storage capacity.

Buckeye South Texas Gateway Terminal: Ingleside, Texas, is wholly owned by Buckeye South Texas Gateway Terminal, LLC, a joint venture between Buckeye Partners L.P., Phillips 66 Company, and Marathon Petroleum Company LP. It handles bulk storage and marine loading of crude oil. The terminal has two docks that can fit up to a VLCC-sized vessel and 8 million barrels of storage capacity, 3.2 million barrels of which is for WTI Midland crude oil storage.

Pin Oak Corpus Christi Terminal: Corpus Christi, Texas, is wholly owned by Pin Oak Group LLC. It handles crude oil and petroleum products. The terminal has two docks, including one that can fit up to a Suezmax size vessel and has a storage capacity of 5.1 million barrels, 2.9 million barrels of which is for crude oil storage.

NuStar Corpus Christi: Texas North Beach: NuStar Logistics LP wholly owns the terminal, which handles crude oil and petroleum products, including distillates, gasoline, xylene and toluene. The terminal has four docks, including two that can fit up to a Suezmax size vessel and 3.7 million barrels of crude storage capacity, 1.4 million barrels of which is for WTI Midland.

Dated Brend at wiki

The maps:


Seasonal Flu -- A Look Back -- Sunday, February 19, 2023

Other than starting one year earlier and ending one year earlier (the top graph), the two graphs below both have the same heading:

"Cumulative rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations among cases of all ages...." Only the ranges are different.

  • The top graph: "2015-16 to 2021-22." 
  • The bottom graph: "2014-15 to 2022-23."

Can you spot the differences?

Top graph:

Bottom graph:


What I observed
:

The top graph, "2015-16 to 2021-22" should cover seven flu seasons (count them: 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22).

The bottom graph, "2014-15 to 2022-23" should cover nine flu seasons (count them: 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 23).

Now, count the number of lines in each graph:

The top graph should have seven lines; it has eight.

The bottom graph should have nine lines; it does; it has nine lines.

The top graph "heading" suggests only seven seasons, whereas the bottom graph "heading" now suggests nine seasons. Why the change? Macht nichts.

Both graphs stop at week 15 (top graph) or week 17 (bottom graph). Macht nichts.

There is one exception, in the bottom graph year 2021 - 2022 goes out to week 23. Why? Macht nichts. 

But this is what caught my eye. Let's go back to the number of lines in each graph vs the heading.

The lower/bottom graph is fine.

The heading in the top/upper graph covers seven "flu" seasons. And, yet there are eight lines -- representing eight flu seasons.

Remarkably (and/or fortuitously), that graph also included the cumulative rate for the 2011-12 flu season

Look at the top graph.

During the 2020-21 and 2021-22 Covid-19 pandemic, "seasonal flu" practically disappeared, practically off the scale (trending toward zero) compared to all the other seasons prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

With one exception: the 2011-12 "flu season."

That "flu season," -- 2011-12 -- a decade before the Covid-19 pandemic, was also a year that had virtually no "seasonal flu."

So what happened?

The CDC did not address that at the time this graph was posted (unless I missed it).

**********************************
The 2011 - 2012 "Flu Season"

Googling.

The CDC actually addressed the question: the 2011 - 2012 flu season. Link here.  

*******************
Others

A few other sites addressed the very, very unusual phenomenon observed in 2011 - 2012.

Waning effectiveness of the "flu" vaccine during the 2011 - 2012 "flu" season. Link here.  



Quiet season: where is the flu? Link here.



*******************
The Swine Flu Epidemic

WHO:

  • H1N1/swine flu/influenza virus
  • June, 2009, to August, 2010

Is it just my imagination or do others recall this also:  in 2009, the GOP did not question the WHO with regard to swine flu, but one of the GOP's favorite targets with regard to Covid 19 was the WHO.

Friday, February 17, 2023

So, We Have No Idea What We Shot Down -- February 16, 2023

... or they're not telling us. My hunch: they really don't know (we certainly did not know when the decision was made to shoot them down) and "we" let "mob rule" (mostly led by the GOP opposition) to decide the outcome (shoot first, ask questions later).




Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Global Catastrophes -- February 14, 2023

Katherine knows her "animal groups": link here. Most deaths preventable (?).

Turkey / Syria death count: tops 35,000 as of yesterday (February 13, 2023). Most deaths preventable (?).

Civilian deaths in Ukraine (Putin's War): officially, 7,000 but actual figures "much" higher. All deaths preventable (?).

Asthmatic children and seniors with respiratory disease sickened by natural gas stoves, number unknown (?).

Abortions, annual, US only: trending toward one million abortions annually (?).

Vietnam War: wiki here (?).

Monday, February 13, 2023

Turkey Earthquake -- February 13, 2023

A reader writes that Bloomberg is reporting that Turkey's Erdogan is controlling the news, his people won't know how bad the earthquakes were, and Erdogan will be re-elected.

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply

This was "eastern Turkey."

"Eastern Turkey" is also referred to as "Indian country" or something to that effect by Istanbul, and "western Turkey" and the capital in the north, Ankara (central, though considered the west).

No one cares about eastern Turkey -- it is very sparsely settled compared to the west.

Eastern Turkey to Ankara / Istanbul is like Kansas/Nebraska to Washington, DC, and NYC. No one cares.

In addition, the Muslims "inshallah" attitude is that this is god's will, nothing to do with secular rulers.

My hunch: this is a huge story because its got great video and Ankara is going to receive huge tons of foreign aid, much of it won't reach eastern Turkey. If you think the "big man" in the US gets his cut, it's nothing compared to what the Big Man in Turkey gets.

As noted earlier, I have no interest in this story. Earthquakes happen; money flows to Turkey; and who ever is in charge will be the big winner. There was a moment in time when Turkey had the chance to move into the 21st century but that is lost, if not forever, at least long enough that I won't see any change in my lifetime.

The fact that Turkey is in NATO controlling whether Finland / Sweden are allowed to join NATO is a real travesty. 

Books From Powell Books -- February, 13, 2023



It's Over -- February 13, 2023

I did not watch the game, but I saw the video replay of this and agreed completely -- clearly, it was holding, and clearly thee receiver was on his way to a touchdown-winning play. 

So not only did the Chiefs' receiver -- whose name I did not catch -- lose that stat -- but it was a lot of stats lost due to being held:

  • another pass reception
  • another pass reception in a post-season game
  • another pass reception in a Super Bowl
  • a winning touchdown reception
  • a winning touchdown reception in a post-season game
  • a winning touchdown reception in a Super Bowl
  • reception yardage; and,
  • I would have remembered his name

Sunday, February 12, 2023

F-22s And Weather Balloons — February 12, 2023

A reader asked why the USAF was using F-22s to shoot down weather balloons.

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

There could be any number of reasons.

As soon as the target was identified, the president would have asked SEC/DOD what options the USAF had if the decision was made to take out the balloon. In general, whenever the president asks a question like that, the Sec/DOD gives the president the three best options and the president chooses -- in this case, the first choice was likely the only "real" choice; the additional choices were provided because the president wants to make a choice. It's very possible the USAF gave the president the three options that the USAF wanted, not necessarily the best or only three options, if that makes sense.

The most likely reason is the "jurisdiction" issue. 

The air base most closely located to the target may be an F-22 base. 

From what little I know (not classified) any of the modern fighters equipped with the right missile could have done this -- the newer planes are stealthier, have better maneuverability, etc, all of which is not important in taking out a balloon over friendly territory. A B-52 with the right missile could have also taken out the balloon based on what little I know -- remember the B-52 is named the Stratofortress ... designed for flying at high altitudes. 

Depending on whether the fighter goes supersonic or not to get there, the fighter has only so much range, and had to get to the target before the target was in a location where shooting it down might become problematic. 

The Chinese -- if these are Chinese balloons -- are getting huge amounts of data including whether NORAD can even see these small objects before they get over US air space. 

Whatever the USAF uses, does not matter to me. These are "training missions" as well as opportunities for promotion. 

The pilot(s) who shot these down was (were) on the path to advancement to general office (first star).  

The cost of the Sparrow missile is immaterial. Absolutely immaterial. 

Friday, February 10, 2023

A Ghoulish Story -- A Ghost Kitchen -- February 10, 2023

Link here.

Let's cut to the chase.

...another more traditional ghost kitchen appears to be thriving. Located in a 2,700-square-foot building in Northwest Portland, Homage Industrial Kitchen is booming, says owner John Wirtz....cooks food that’s branded under 76 distinct virtual restaurant names on apps such as Grubhub and Uber Eats

....“This place takes the cynical approach, which is throwing a thousand things at the wall and seeing if any stick. It feels deceptive,” says Kurt Huffman, the Portland restaurateur who founded Lardo, Ox and Grassa and runs a management company that helps open restaurants. “The whole thing is profoundly uninteresting and hopefully something that will die a fiery death. These are the perversions of ghost kitchens.”

Over the past two years, seven former employees of Wirtz’s filed complaints with the Oregon Bureau of Labor & Industries, alleging withheld paychecks, unpaid overtime and stolen tips. All complaints remain under investigation.

Wirtz is not new to the food business. The Oregon native, 30, has worked as a line cook, chef and waiter in restaurants since high school. But in 2017, according to a court affidavit by then-Washington County deputy district attorney Kevin Barton, Wirtz invited a 14-year-old runaway girl to his Beaverton apartment, agreeing to let her stay there in exchange for sex.

Wirtz spent a year and a half in custody while awaiting sentencing, according to the prosecutor in the case. In July 2018, Wirtz was sentenced to five years’ probation minus time served. However, the Oregon State Police’s Sex Offender Registration Section tells WW that Wirtz’s probation ended Sept. 23, 2020.

WW asked if he employs any minors. Wirtz said he does.

This spring, Wirtz brought in a “chief operating officer” to help out at Homage: former Salem cop Seth Thayres.

Thayres appears to have little experience in the food business and, in February 2019, retired after five years with the Salem Police Department when he was arrested by authorities. Two months later, Thayres was convicted in Clackamas County Circuit Court of theft after he and an accomplice stole more than $30,000 worth of equipment from two businesses.

Much more at the link.

Thursday, February 9, 2023

GDPNow -- Unemployment -- First Week In February -- 2023

 

Reuters

BLS.

*********************************
GDP Now

Link here.

Some Rewards Programs Are Downright Insulting -- February 9, 2023

Paying with cash earns one star for each dollar spent.

Paying online through the app earns two stars for each dollar spent.

It takes one hundred stars to earn a "free" coffee.

Bottom line:

  • after spending $50 (online) or $100 (in cash) one gets a "free coffee." 

Generally:

  • a simple cup of coffee costs about $3.00.

Therefore, fifteen cups of coffee (or fifteen visits to Starbucks) earns you a free cup of coffee, which can be had at home for 15 cents or 50 cents (for most expensive K-Cup choice).

Covid-19 -- Update -- February 9, 2023

Whatever happened to the hysteria: from less than a month ago, January 17, 2023 -- most recent CDC data -- it never happened --

Covid: ‘Tripledemic’ anxiety has LAUSD parents pleading for mask mandate.

Many Los Angeles parents are navigating another troubling winter of health worries, as COVID-19, flu cases and respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, continue to circulate.
Among many low-income or multifamily households, a contagious virus threatens both their child and their financial stability.
A group of families, largely Spanish-speaking parents from East and South Los Angeles, is now asking L.A. Unified for mandatory masking and to re-establish on-campus weekly coronavirus testing.
They have not yet received a direct response from the district. But at a January 9, 2023, news conference, Supt. Alberto Carvalho took on what he referred to as “misinformation, disinformation, confusion and unwarranted fear.”

Links today:

Japan: still not out of the woods.

US: something worked.

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Apple -- Apple Pay Later -- BNPL -- Update -- February 8, 2023

Link here.

Apple this week made a beta version of its upcoming "Apple Pay Later" feature available to the company's more than 80,000 retail employees in the U.S. for testing.
Announced at WWDC 2022 last June, Apple Pay Later is a "buy now, pay later" financing option that will let qualifying customers in the U.S. split a purchase made with Apple Pay into four equal payments over six weeks, with no interest or fees to pay. The feature will be built into Apple's Wallet app on the iPhone and iPad.

Also, from January 24, 2023.

Digital wallet: link here

Major banks in the US are combining forces to take on Apple Pay. Zelle. This is a huge story. Coming on the heels of incredibly poor earnings being reported by some major banks. 

Apple is not a bank. This tells me how threatening the major banks see Apple. See this recent post, one of two big stories reported that week. 

Last year we started receiving information from our regional bank regarding their new service, Zelle. It appeared the Zelle was our only way to transfer money from our bank account to outside accounts where automatic withdrawal exists (other than paper checks). I don't think that's true but it felt that why. Whatever. The big problem: I don't trust my regional bank (transactions fees, etc) and I certainly don't trust an outside app with which I have no experience.

For me, Apple and "trust" are linked in the dictionary. And at the hip.

See yesterday's note on CBDC, also -- central bank digital currency.

SCCO -- February 8, 2023

CNBC, February 6, 2023:

Well, this is pleasant.

INTC -- February 8, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Link here.


Homelessness -- February 8, 2023

Premise: if I can think of this, so can much smarter folks in Washington, DC, and my hunch the wheels are already in motion. 

******************************

 

*************************
Following the SOTU address last night, February 8, 2023

Following the speech, a memorandum listing 25 priorities starting circulating in social media. Number 25 had to do with President Biden's personal interest: cancer. Number 24 was simple to articulate: homelessness

It is time for a new federal executive department or independent government agency: Agency for Homeless Affairs (HA)

  • carve out the "hardware" portion of HA from existing HUD resources;
  • carve out the "software" portion of HA from existing HHS resources;

**************************
Second thoughts: later afternoon, early evening, February 7, 2023
:

Some background.

Cabinet-level agencies at this site. There are fourteen. Focus on four:

  • DOD
  • VA: a carve-out in 1988 when the DOD failed in one of its missions, to oversee issues affecting veterans.
  • HUD: responsible for the "homeless."  One estimate: 600,000 across the US. Has remained fairly stable.
  • HHS: 

In perspective:

  • number of abortions in US annually -- somewhere between 650,000 and one million. 
  • southwest land border encounters, per month, from less than 50K per month in 2020 to trending toward 275,000 per month in 2023. 
    • the vast majority of these "encounters" will end up homeless for at least a portion of their stay in America.

Think of it this way:

  • HUD: hardware
  • HHS: software

Federal executive departments at this site

Government department and agencies at this site. Updated by the Federal Register, as of September, 2022, there 438. When one runs through that list, there is a gaping omission.

The Department of Veterans Affairs Act of 1988 (Pub. L. 100–527) changed the former Veterans Administration, an independent government agency established in 1930, into a Cabinet-level Department of Veterans Affairs.
It was signed into law by President Ronald Reagan on 25 October 1988, however came into effect under the term of his successor, George H. W. Bush, on 15 March 1989.

**************************
First thoughts: February 7, 2023
.

I'm spending the week in Portland, OR, visiting our 3-year-old grandsons.

Portland gets a lot of bad press. One can't "judge" a city in the northern tier of the United States during the winter, so I won't.

I visit Portland not less than two times a year. So far, I've been here three times in eight months. 

Many years ago when we first moved to the Dallas / Ft Worth area, I was struck by the number of huge -- and I mean huge -- churches in the area. I arrived ahead of my wife and I knew she would be put-off by these huge churches, which to her represents the "southern Bible Belt" (which it does) and a very, very conservative mindset (which it does) and for her, a racist ideology (I don't know, but my wife is very insightful and very, very well-read).  

Six months after living in the Dallas / Ft Worth area, I no longer noticed the churches. They are still there, but they are so much part of the environment they disappear into the trees, McMansions, and quarter-mile wide intersections.

I thought of that when driving through Portland yesterday -- not sightseeing but running errands -- when my daughter pointed out the changing character of a homeless encampment by which we passed. She said at one time it was one of the larger homeless camps in the area. It's still huge, of course, but had she not pointed it out, I would not have noticed. It simply blended into the east Portland purlieus. Seriously. 

Downtown

I took the Blue Line into downtown Portland, yesterday and then again today. There is now security on the entire line -- something I had never seen before. It was my impression there were almost no unsavory riders on the train, but it could simply be due to the blustery, rainy whether. Those folks, I assume, are hunkered down in their tents.

Speaking of which, the tents -- at least in the outlying areas -- have gotten a lot nicer. Run a few extension cords for space heaters, or better yet, put in a few diesel generators and the rent would go way up. LOL.

[Update: I understand there's now a city program for providing REI-like tents for the homeless. Whoo-hoo.]

By the way, if one wants to move some of the more undesirable camps from certain locations downtown, it could easily be managed:

  • find large open fields, or better yet, abandoned warehouses, at least one half-mile but not more than two miles from the MAX (light rail); in the big scheme of things, the homeless population is not that huge that it can't be made more humane;
    • there are youth basketball / indoor soccer facilities in north Texas the size of two or three a/c hangers that could handle the entire homeless population in Portland
  • install a diesel generator or two, donated by the local power utilities;
  • install trailer-home hook-ups for electricity, donated by EV charging companies (as a condition for operating in the city); I spent one summer in Williston, ND, working for MDU; in less than a week we wired a brand-new "trailer camp." Two professionals and two untrained college kids. 80-hours of professional wages and 80-hours of minimum wage. Mr MDU could have paid for it and his annual salary would have been minimally impacted;
  • placement of Port-a-Potties, donated by Waste Management and construction companies (again, as a condition ...)
  • one hot meal a day, provided by any number of go-good operations already up-and-running in the city;
  • amenities: a weekly traveling library; free wi-fi; a 24-hour coffee / snacks kiosk / with postal services (yes, it could be done; I've lived in military tent cities at the end of the world);
  • provide security with time and services donated by the police unions who are always looking for ways to boost their stature in the community;
  • and, then, the coup de grace, budget miscellaneous expenses and pay for these miscellaneous expenses with federal grant money raised by quadrupling the tax on "share buybacks." 
  • miscellaneous expenses (much of the following could be managed by Salvation Army stores, or Goodwill (the fact that they aren't also speaks volumes):
    • toiletries including feminine hygiene products;
    • toilet paper and wet wipes;
    • "Purell"
    • underwear, socks, 
    • weekly transportation to shower facilities -- now, wouldn't that be great? 
    • "St Jude" marketing; fund-raising

Wouldn't it be great if we could regionalize this? A multi-billionaire would partner with a university for a four-year capstone project in return for a tuition-free education:

  • Pacific Northwest: Bill Gates and University of Washington
  • Southwest: Tim Cook and UC-Berkeley
  • South: Elon Musk -- UT-Austin
  • Midwest: the Koch brothers, Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett -- U of M or U of MI (Madison)
  • Northeast: Bloomberg and CUNY or The New School (NYC)
  • Southeast: Bob Iger and University of Miami (Florida)

Folks might scoff at the "diesel generator" angle, but I've spent time in African nations in which entire towns "ran off" a single generator, or larger cities, used multiple generators as back-up emergency power.

I won't listen to any "pushback" until the naysayer has read Lady Almina and the Real Downton Abbey at least twice. 

Wow, once you start "managing" the problem, everything starts to work:

  • public health: needle exchange; condoms; HIV medication; immunizations; TB (tuberculosis) testing;
  • social work: the entire service network;
  • basic adult education; 
  • income tax services; 
  • voting booths; voting registration;
  • EVs golf carts to transport residents to public transportation;
  • the homeless would get pre-paid passes on public transportation, paid for by car companies; public transportation would have another revenue stream. 

The fact none of this is being done, speaks volumes about the seriousness of those speaking to the challenge.

The premise: a civilized society gives the most unfortunate "more than enough" to be humane without giving these less unfortunate so much it discourages upward mobility. When Hillary Clinton was 25 years old, she would have had the energy and expertise and idealism to see this through. Now, she has no energy and no idealism left .. but she has the expertise and the connections .. if only ...  

Correlate: the problem doesn't have to be solved "overnight." But after forty years of this -- since the Vietnam War era -- certainly "we" could have shown a lot more progress;

Powell Books:

  • most incredible bookstore in the world, some might argue; I wouldn't disagree;
  • I was most impressed by the fact that no homeless folks are camped out there; don't know why; didn't ask;
  • the store was not particularly busy but it was 10:00 a.m. on a blustery, drizzly morning in the middle of winter;
  • I was most disappointed with the coffee shop; I had planned to buy my books and then hang out there all day;
  • the coffee shop has been completely renovated since I was last there more than three years ago;
  • the coffee shop in Powell's Books was incredibly welcoming; one of the nicer coffee shops I had / have seen in quite some time;
  • there were no customers in the coffee shop -- none, nada, zilch
    • then I looked at the menu:
    • coffee: $3.50 / cup -- no selection of coffees; they probably had a selection, I simply didn't see the selection if it existed;
    • they offered about eight food items; six were ex-ed out with black grease market; one sandwich for $8.95 was offered;
    • I did not go in.
  • literally around the corner, a Starbucks with a 4.3-star rating on Google maps; a Starbucks a bit farther away had a 3.8-star rating.

Starbucks Coffee

  • surprise, surprise. One of the nicer Starbucks I've been in and because downtown is "empty" during the winter in Portland, I practically had the place to myself. It could easily seat 32 folks with 6-foot Covid-19 spacing -- I mean this place was cavernous ...
  • coffee and a bacon-egg-cheese sandwich, heated -- cost me less than $9.00.
  • this will be both breakfast and lunch;
  • c'mon man: find a less expensive breakfast and lunch in a downtown US city over 100,000 in population -- and I get rewards.

I quit looking at my rewards over a year ago when Starbucks changed their reward program -- but two weeks ago, a barista in north Texas pointed out I had 155 points -- enough points to get me through the next six weeks of winter forecast by P. Phil (link here for those who can't spell his name either).

  • music for keeping Portland weird in this Starbucks: 60's rock. Are you kidding me?
  • speaking of which, did you all hear who "won" Song of the Year" earlier this week at the 65th Annual Grammy Awards. LOL. Made my day. How old is she, Bonnie? 73 years old. She was stunned, she mouthed "I don't believe it" when the award was announced. Lives in Burbank, CA. This is like living in Southlake, TX.
  • those nominated who did not win need to ask for a recount; but I know what happened -- the other four split the 75% of voters who did not vote for Ms Raitt. What a riot! 
Name the two of the following who have won a Grammy: Snoop Dogg, Jennifer Lopez, Diana Ross. 

 

Variant Roundup -- February 8, 2023

Link here.



Books -- February 8, 2023

So, we'll see, time will tell:

After soaring 18.9% in the first half of 2021 over the comparable period in 2020, unit sales of print books retreated in the first half of 2022, dropping 6.6% from 2021 levels. According to NPD BookScan, total first-half print sales were 362.6 million, down from 386.6 million a year ago. All the major categories except adult fiction had declines, with the largest drop coming in the industry’s biggest category, adult nonfiction, where print sales fell 10.3%.

Sales at the midpoint of 2022 were still about 15% above the first six months of 2019, the last prepandemic year, which many in the industry are using as a benchmark, in light of the unexpectedly strong subsequent two years of the pandemic. The 6.6% decline is also an improvement over the first quarter, which saw an 8.9% drop in sales compared to last year’s first quarter.

Much has been made of the weakness in frontlist sales again this year, and that was evident in the BookScan data. Frontlist sales were down 11.7% in the first half of 2022, while backlist sales were off a more modest 4.1%, according to BookScan.

Tuesday, February 7, 2023

Social Security, The GOP, And President Biden -- February 7, 2023

About a month ago, I heard very clearly, being reported in the news, that some GOP members were calling for an end to social security and/or Medicare, or calling for changes that could be misconstrued as ending social security and/or Medicare, at least in their present forms, and right, wrong, or indifferent, President Biden has tapped into that. 

More often than not, it seems that the GOP or portions thereof are incredibly tone-deaf or do not know how to frame an issue. 

I would rather the GOP -- if they are interested in even touching that very, very touchy issue -- to come out with a message that the GOP wants to "expand" social security.

And then in the small print, and/or in the back rooms, "expand" social security for those that truly need it and cut it or completely eliminate for those that do not need it. Instead, the GOP "headlines" the issue with worries that Social Security will soon become insolvent and the US Congress needs to act. 

And, of course, the Democrats will take that "headline" and run with it. 



Apple In The News -- February 7, 2023

Three links: