https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1870099697227936006.
Friday, December 27, 2024
Berkshire -- Update -- December 27, 2024
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has increased its overall stake in VeriSign VRSN, a provider of Internet domain-name registry services.
Berkshire Hathaway insurance unit Geico and pension plans of other Berkshire Hathaway businesses bought a total of 143,424 VeriSign shares from December 20, 2024, through Tuesday, December 23, 2024, for a total of $28.5 million, an average price of $199.05 each.
Geico added 14,921 of the shares to lift its investment to 7,920,402 VeriSign shares, while the pensions bought 128,503 shares to boost their stake to 5,272,947 VeriSign shares.
Overall, Berkshire Hathaway now owns 13,193,349 VeriSign shares, according to a form Buffett’s firm filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
It remains the largest shareholder with a stake of more than 10%.Berkshire Hathaway didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on the stock purchases.
VeriSign stock has been flat so far in 2024, while the S&P 500 has surged 25%.
Shares have badly underperformed the index in recent years as well. Since the end of 2019, VeriSign stock gained 6.6%, while the S&P 500 has soared 86%. Berkshire Hathaway also bought more VeriSign stock earlier this month, along with shares of Occidental Petroleum and satellite-radio firm Sirius XM Holdings.
American Credit Card Debt -- December 27, 2024
American credit card debt:
- As of the third quarter of 2024, the average American's credit card debt is $6,380, which is a 5% increase from 2023.
From CNBC today:
In general this would not include borrowing costs associated with housing and transportation.
Apple's $20-Billion Problem -- December 27, 2024
Breitbart headline: Apple desperate to defend mega-payout from Google in antitrust case (https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2024/12/27/apple-is-desperate-to-defend-mega-payout-from-google-in-antitrust-case/).
"Everyone" has known about this issue for decades.
My hunch: Apple has planned for that contingency, a ruling against the arrangement.
Apple's annual revenue: $400 billion.
Apple's annual income: $100 billion.
The $20 billion (or whatever it is now) comes in as "revenue."
$20 / $400 = 5%.
Unfortunately, one assumes there is very little cost to this "revenue," thus suggesting the revenue drops to the bottom line as income.
$20 / $100 = 20%. Ouch.
So, yes, this is a big deal.
My understanding is that this is an issue of a "monopoly." Apple has an exclusive agreement with Google.
Such cases do not play out well in the EU and are likely not to play out well in the US.
If that is the case, that Apple needs to "open" its search capabilities to other search engines, my hunch is that, though cumbersome, Apple will slice and dice that opportunity, charging each search engine provide a fee for allowing Apple users to use a particular search engine.
One reason Google likes this arrangement, Apple and Google set a price to which they both agree. But neither really knows what the free market might bring. My hunch: in total -- more than the $20 billion Apple currently gets. Some search engines would not be able to compete, and others that want to get in on this lucrative arrangement may be willing to pay more than what Google has been paying.
Even better, Apple is going to cash in on ChatBots / AI. "Search" as we
currently know it goes away. I'm now using AI on a regular basis which
is much better than search for answering specific questions.
But Apple has bigger issues.
Here are the revenue and income charts for Apple.
It's pretty obvious Apple has a bigger problem than losing the $20 billion mega-payment from Google.
But this is the real problem with regard to the $20-billion payout.
A reader calculates that this payout works out to $ 1.32 per share at today's numbers, if accurate:
- 1.32 / 260 = 0.005 or 0.5%.
Chickenfeed.
This problem is the headline.
"Apple Loses Mega-Lawsuit; To Cost Apple $20 Billion Annually."
That will spook investors and the share price won't drop $1.32 / share. The headline will drive the Apple share price down $13.20 / share.
A buying opportunity, if I ever saw one.
Thursday, December 26, 2024
US Voter -- 2008 -- 2021 -- Financial Times Data -- December 26, 2024
Previously posted:
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The Book Page: Re-Posting
America's Red Shift: Now Who's On The Wrong Side Of History
Essay by Charles R. Kesler, editor of the Claremont Review of Books.
Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024, p. 6.
Six-page essay on the Trump-Harris campaigns and outcome.
The
essay leads up to Obama's famous "on the right side of history" speech
in which he originally suggested that those on the right side of history
will eventually win because it's the right side of history.
But, now, with the outcome of the 2024 presidential election he has changed his speech slightly. "The right side of history" is not a given to win out. For the "right side of history" to win out, "we must will it to win."
"The right side of history" is not a given. In fact, it may not even be the "right side of history."
His argument leads up to a very fun piece of writing, page 12:
Though he didn't use that demographic argument in his speech to the DNC in Chicago, Obama still looked forward confidently to building "a true Democratic majority." Someone ought to endow a prized and name it after Obama -- the Barack Obama Prize -- prize for being painfully out of touch with your own country.He (Obama) should receive the inaugural trophy. He could display it alongside the Nobel Prize he got in 2009 for bringing peace to the world. Trump and the MAGA Republicans are now in the process of assimilating working-class voters, including young black and Hispanics, supposedly elements that "true Democratic majority," into a new Trumpian movement that may form, in time, a new Republican majority party.Consider Hispanic voters. Exit polls showed Trump winning about 55% of the Latino male vote. CNN reported a 42% swing toward the Republicans from 2016 to 2024. And it wasn't just en. Support for the Democrats among Latinas, according to CNN, dropped from a 44% advantage in 2016 to a 22-point advantage this year.The Los Angeles Times interviewed some of Trump's Latino supporters. "Why am I for Trump?" asked Tomas Garcia, who supported him in 2016, 2020, and 2024. "Because I'm an American first of all."
The70-year-old's great-grandparents emigrated from Mexico. "Hispanics are about the American dream, said Abraham Enriquez, 29, who was raised by the children of Mexican immigrant parents in west Texas.
"Trump being a billionaire from New York, with a beautiful family and a beautiful wife, as a young Hispanic man, that is the American dream, that is what you one day want to be like."
Michael Fienup, an economist who studies Hispanics, commented, "Latinos are hard-working, they're self -sufficient, they're entrepreneurial, they're patriotic, they're optimistic. Guess what? Those are fundamentally American characteristics."
Netflix, NFL, Taking Down The Nattering Nabobs Of Negativity -- December 26, 2024
Netflix: getting, getting very positive reviews this morning for the two football games yesterday.
- the average 30-second Super Bowl commercial costs $7 million to air
- Netflix paid $150 million for two highly anticipated NFL games on Christmas Day
- the math works out to 10 commercials per game to break even
- Netflix treated one of the two games as a Super Bowl game; Beyonce Show at half-time was not to be missed -- I missed it
- waiting to see the new subscriber growth; the analysts' comments
Link here to Barron's.
Wednesday, December 25, 2024
Investing -- 2025
Top stocks for 2025, Barron's, link here, I "don't get" this list at all:
Mojo, 2024, link here:
The dogs of the Dow, 2023:
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Dogs Of The Dow
Link takes you to a newsletter subscription site. Maybe later I can find a better source.
Dogs of the Dow, December 25, 2024:
Sunday, December 22, 2024
Bluesky Vs X -- December 22, 2024
I'm on both sites, X and Bluesky.
I'm not a bit impressed with Bluesky.
I still remain very impressed with X.
Trump Suggests The US Could Take Back The Panama Canal? What Does This Mean? MAGA -- December 22, 2024
l
It's not even the end of December and he doesn't even get sworn in until near the end of January, and...
- he's already threatening Canada with becoming the 51st state;
- threatening to take back the Panama Canal;
- threatening Saudi Arabia with an American "drill, baby, drill" policy; and,
- flooding Mexico with millions of new immigrants.
- those being returned from the states
- those waiting on the Mexican side of the border
- Guatemalans coming into Mexico from the south with nowhere to go
And, that's just for starters. What does it all mean?
It means several things:
- nothing is off the table in Trump 2.0;
- Trump never quits thinking about MAGA;
- he has no qualms about speaking his mind;
- he's going to dare the Dems to challenge him on tax cuts; they will do so at their peril;
- sure, Americans might be concerned about corporate tax cuts, but they're gonna love personal income tax cuts;
- maybe nothing will change; maybe everything will change, but one thing's for sure -- he's gonna keep people guessing;
- anyone who thinks they're at the center of the political universe (headline: Democrats say the GOP "caved" to Musk), they aren't -- all they can do is talk; guess at what Trump is thinking;
- Trump knows he has but four years to get things done, and it takes about that long to get presidential nominees confirmed by the US Senate; he doesn't have any intention of waiting that long;
- Trump may be leading an oligarchy of billionaires, but behind those billionaires are another twenty or thirty billionaires who support him (or at least his policies); in other words, his bench is incredibly deep
- he tends not to listen to mere centi-millionaires; his bar: at least a billion;
- the press tends to exaggerate what Trump often says in passing;
- DOD? He will have a simple message to the SecDef when presented with a national security issue -- "You know the "commander's intent"; do what it takes. And do it now. Call me when it's over."
- NATO is going to have to increase their military spending;
- want to cut US debt -- quit paying for the defense of Europe.
- cable network news is going to make a lot of money covering Trump's administration.
Super Saturday Sales -- December 22, 2024
Note: the following is projected data five days ago, before actual results, Super Saturday.
Previously reported: only 16% of Americans planned to spend more money this holiday season than last year.
Buffett -- Record Cash Position -- What Does It Mean? December 22, 2024
Last week, Warren Buffett once again made headlines for his "wholesale" stock sell-offs. The latest quarterly report revealed that Berkshire Hathaway continued to reduce its stock holdings, with its cash reserves reaching a record high of $325.2 billion, up 17.4% from $276.9 billion at the end of the second quarter.
Measured against the company's total assets, Berkshire now holds approximately 28% in cash, the highest proportion in many years. Some investors are nervous about Buffett's massive cash hoarding, interpreting it as his bearish view on U.S. stocks.
Since 2000, there appears to be a positive correlation between Buffett's cash position and the performance of the U.S. stock indices, with the highest correlation seen with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This indicates Buffett's contrarian approach to the market—accumulating cash when the stock market rises and buying stocks when it falls, seemingly confirming his famous saying: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
STI: Short-Term Investment
Specifically, Buffett massively sold off U.S. stocks around 1969, 1987, 1999, and 2007, each of which was followed by significant market crashes. From November 2007 to March 2009, both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 plunged by over 50%. Afterward, Buffett successfully capitalized on the market bottom and became the world's richest person for the first time in 2008.
Over the subsequent decade, Berkshire's cash position remained at a relatively low level of around 16%, while the U.S. stock market continued to rise, maintaining Buffett's average annual return above 20%, navigating through bull and bear markets.
Today, with Buffett's cash ratio reaching a historical peak, it's possible he harbors concerns about the market conditions. At the annual shareholders' meeting in May this year, Buffett partly attributed his sale of Apple stocks to his anticipation of higher future tax rates. Additionally, he mentioned his desire to provide more flexibility for his successor after stepping down, suggesting that accumulating sufficient cash might be a preparation for this transition.
Holding nearly $325.2 billion in cash doesn't imply that Berkshire Hathaway can invest the entire amount even if a sufficiently large investment opportunity arises.
Chris Bloomstran, fund manager of Semper Augustus, said, "I consider about half of that cash to be legitimately deployable."
This limitation is due to the substantial cash reserves required by Berkshire Hathaway's extensive insurance operations, which need to cover potential insurance payouts.
Jim Shanahan, an analyst at Edward Jones, suspects that the partial sale of stocks might be related to the death of Vice Chairman Charlie Munger last year, as the sell-off began shortly after his passing. "Buffett's sale of Apple stocks is partly because he is not as comfortable with technology companies as his partner Munger was, but the main reason is that Buffett has always been a conservative investor."
The persistently high U.S. bond yields are also a reason for Buffett selling off Apple stocks. Berkshire's holdings in short-term debts reached $288 billion in Q3, even surpassing the Federal Reserve. Over the past two years, U.S. bond yields have remained around 5%, providing substantial returns on Buffett's massive capital. He himself has admitted that U.S. bonds continue to offer attractive returns; with a lack of better investment options on the market, "we only swing at pitches we like."
Bloomstran stated that Buffett is confined to investing in perhaps the 100 largest companies in the S&P 500 and a few international businesses. His range of investment opportunities is pricey, yet he is comfortable earning a 5.3% return in the interim. This does not suggest that a stock market crash is imminent in any way. He is simply seeking opportunities to invest at great prices that are stable enough. His investment universe is limited.
Tea Leaves Suggest An Incredible Santa Claus Rally To End The Year -- December 22, 2024
Christmas Eve, midnight, December 24, 2024:
December 22, 2024: We'll get a hint of the Santa Claus rally beginning Monday, December 23, two days before Christmas, and then more "data" between Christmas Day and New Year's Day.
Fortuitous? Hanukkah exactly overlaps Christmas and New Year's Day. Wow.
This is not trivial.
Sunday, December 15, 2024
The Ken Fisher Portfolio -- An Update --The One-Year Return -- December 15, 2024
Goldilocks economy, Ken Fisher's list: August, 2023.
HHad I taken that portfolio and whittled it down to ten:
The same portfolio of ten without NVDA:
Friday, December 13, 2024
Freight Transport -- December 13, 2024
A reader sent me this graph without comment.
My reply:
This is an incredibly interesting graph.Except for 2021, which is an outlier, due to that year being the year following the year of Covid-19 when the US was recovering from a complete lockdown, the freight shipments have been down since 2010 and not only down but negative.Based on this graphic, Buffett bought BNSF at its high. Buffett bought BNSF in 2010 -- the last high water mark for freight shipments.Cass Freight index, I believe is TRUCKING and not rail, but both truck and rail would be closely related when considering overall freight shipments.So, rail:This tells me that the US experienced a huge "industrial" change fifteen years ago, switching from an industrial economy to a service industry, and now most recently an AI industry that needs "no" rail or truck support.This is similar to the switch from an agrarian economy in the 1800s to a heavy industry economy in the 1900s.And there's no evidence that we're going to go back to an industrial economy though Trump will work to change that.
The reader has a better explanation:
One huge item for BNSF hipments stems from NG. 20 odd years, near Alliance, Nebraska, and on side rails, were parked 11 huge unit trains for getting coal to/from the Powder river Basin. Find out how much coal shipment have gone down in these years due to NG and this is true BNSF industrial number. It would be interesting to know.
Putin
Together, we have identified the man behind the curtain as Lt. Gen. Dmitry Minaev and can now reveal a trove of fresh details about the unit that he runs: the Department for Counterintelligence Operations. Known as DKRO, it is at the very core of Putin’s opaque wartime regime. The story of how it got there reveals much about how Russia’s autocratic system became entangled in a broiling conflict with the West.
Among our findings:
- DKRO has played an enormous and unreported role in plunging Russia into its biggest wave of repression since the demise of Joseph Stalin, including a purge of the Defense Ministry after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine faltered.
- The department was ordered to secure the release from Germany of Vadim Krasikov, a Russian hit man convicted in the 2019 assassination of a Putin enemy in a Berlin park.
- DKRO then accelerated a campaign of arresting American citizens on Russian soil, including basketball star Brittney Griner. DKRO used former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan and me as trade bait to secure the release of Krasikov.
- Among DKRO’s other missions was to harass and surveil Western diplomats in Russia, even pressuring students in the U.S. Embassy high school to spy on their classmates.
Despite
DKRO’s growing importance to the regime, there was almost no mention of
the agency anywhere on the internet until the Journal reported last
year that it was behind my arrest. It didn’t even have a Wikipedia page.
Almost nobody outside of a tight circle of Russia experts and
intelligence officers had ever heard of it. [There is now a wiki page for DKRO.]
The more we tugged at this simple question—who in Russia was arresting Americans?—the more we revealed the secret inner machinery that has made it possible for Putin to tighten the screws across Russia’s 11 time zones, creating what a U.N. special rapporteur on human rights called an atmosphere of political persecution “unprecedented in recent history.”
Tuesday, December 3, 2024
The Pardon -- Spare The Rod, Spoil The Child -- December 3, 2024
Updates
December 3, 2024:
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Archived Before December 3, 2024
Bottom line: this will not age well.
Hunter will fade into the background, never to be heard from again, a mere footnote in a Biden biography. But this is Biden's legacy, sandwiched between two Trump presidencies who got out of the race too late when he said he would be a transition president and pardoned his son after denying he would for four years. And worse, it opens the door for Trump pardons. And unlike Biden, Trump won't wait for the end of his term to start issuing his pardons. Again, I'm not saying this was not the fatherly thing to do; I'm just saying that it won't age well. It again raises an interesting question: does "doing a moral thing," make it right. Wow.
Bottom line, jumping the shark: at the end of the day, the right thing for a "true / real" father would do (think Jesus) but it will have long-lasting consequences:
- it will be Biden's lasting legacy; and,
- it opens the door to Trump pardons.
Worse, Biden, like Trump, has acknowledged the DOJ is a partisan attack dog; that some people are, indeed, above the law; and, justifies at least one reason why Trump felt it so necessary to run for presidnet again.
For MAGA it was a win-win. Perhaps a win-win-win.
By the way, what a "real/true" father would do --- but that raises the question -- was Jesus infallible?
So many things that distressed the Dems with regard to Trump no longer "hold water." I'm thinking specifically of the presidential records Trump stored at Mar-a-Lago. And I'm thinking of Trump's alleged business dealings. Hunter and his father were doing the same thing.
From The New York Times:
A reader sent me this excellent note yesterday:
I tried to send this through the blogger comment, but I don't understand whether or not it worked.
I am a blog subscriber in good standing. I imagine I've read at least 95% of the posts over the years. Thank you for the NVIDIA coverage. That, along with the glowing Atlantic article about Mr. Huang got me in early as a trader/investor. Not enough to change my life, but enough to make it fun and to justify my subscription to your blog all these years.I write because of your recent victory lap/gloating about Biden pardoning his son. I am in no way seeking to justify or otherwise give cover to Biden reneging on his word about the pardon. However, lest we get too spun up on requiring everyone to act constantly in a consistent manner, we should remember our Emerson: “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. — 'Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' — Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to be misunderstood.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance: An Excerpt from Collected Essays, First Series
My reply:
Thank you for your persistence in getting that note to me and thank you for your kind words.There's so much one could write about the pardon but it would be a diversion I can't afford, just not enough time in life.As with the Dallas Cowboys, I've been wrong many, many times and I'm sure the same will be true with my views regarding Biden. He clearly did the right thing. He should have granted the pardon in as few words as possible and not provide any more detail. Everyone would have understood.I can't imagine (m)any fathers in the true sense of the word not doing the same thing. Jesus certainly would have had that attitude -- to forgive ... but again, no further "argument" was needed.Unfortunately for Biden, right or wrong, that will be his legacy -- jumping out of the presidential race way too late (after saying he wouldn't) and pardoning his son (after saying he wouldn't). Again, not a moral argument one way or the other, but simply a fact, that those two "things" will be his legacy.The first, getting out of the race too late, resulted in Kamala Harris .The second, pardoning his son -- again, I would have done the same thing -- opens the door for Trump to announce his pardons and let the other side cast the first stone(s).By the way, on another note, you mention Emerson -- about six months ago I bought the annotated Emerson -- and have only begun to read it ...Again, thank you for writing. Yes, I don't understand the blogger app and comments; I've pretty much "turned" off the option to comment -- I was getting simply too many comments that were not helpful and did not move the conversation along in a constructive manner. I'm glad you persevered.
And an addendum:
I came across this after I sent my reply: from The Atlantic, not particularly conservative in its viewpoint:If blocked by a paywall, I will quote it at length in the blog this next week.Thanks again for writing the blog.
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The Pardon
The Pardon
December 3, 2024
The Pardon:
- that's his legacy; and,
- the gift that will keep on giving (Trump).
The Atlantic:
New York Times:
Steven A. Smith:
Morning Joe: biggest political story of the year, and Morning Joe still refuses to cover it. Wow. Cold open today with list of stories they will be covering in the first hour, and the pardon is not even mentioned in passing.
Meanwhile, the pardon is the story. Exhibit A: the front page of The New York Times.
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