Shay Boloor -- What's Really Happening -- April 9, 2025

My theory on what's really happened -- Shay Boloor -- link here.

The United States tripled its money supply over the past two decades. That’s not some abstract economic trivia. That’s the foundational distortion that shaped every asset class, every risk model, every portfolio built since GFC. We spent nearly a decade pretending the cost of capital didn’t matter -- that money could be free, and the consequences deferred. The results? Mortgage rates below inflation, a stock market priced for perfection, and a generation of investors who came to believe gravity no longer applied. 

Now we’re just waking up from the dream, and people are treating the hangover like it’s some unexpected injustice. As if 3% mortgage rates were a natural right. As if the $QQQ only ever goes up. But this isn’t some rogue detour. This is the return to reality. And reality hurts.

But here’s where it gets more complex -- and more dangerous. Because what we’re seeing isn’t just the result of delayed normalization. It’s not just the unwinding of pandemic stimulus or rate repression. There’s something else layered beneath the surface. And the signs aren’t subtle. 

This isn’t policy drift. It’s a campaign. A strategic, targeted repositioning of America’s role in the global economy. And if you look at the moves -- tariffs, trade threats, the rhetoric around reshoring, the calculated pressure on allies -- the target becomes clear. It’s not inflation. It’s not even the bond market. 

It’s China. You don’t have to believe in conspiracy to see the throughline. Over the last couple years, the tone in Washington has shifted from cooperation to confrontation. Even the doves have turned hawkish. And for the first time in decades, the U.S. is structuring trade and capital policy not around growth -- but around LEVERAGE. Around weaponizing our position as the global buyer of last resort. 

And let’s be honest: we are the demand engine. We’re the end market. China might rival us in GDP, but their economy is still built on exports -- not internal demand. Their strength relies on moving goods out, not pulling capital in. And that makes them vulnerable. Because if you want to break an export economy, you don’t just go after their goods directly. You go after EVERYONE. You raise tariffs across the board. You force the world to choose. Us or them. 

You don’t get both. 

And that’s exactly what’s happening. This isn’t scattershot anymore. It’s a campaign of forced alignment. Vietnam, Mexico, Europe -- they’re all feeling the pressure. Even Israel and Lesotho aren’t spared. Why? Because the point isn’t fairness. The point is forcing a break. If the entire global system orients around the U.S. consumer, then tariffs become a blunt, brutal way of redrawing the map. You want access to our markets? Play by new rules. Choose your team. 

And if that’s the game being played -- not economic stewardship, but geopolitical realignment -- then no amount of earnings beats are going to stabilize markets. Because the market doesn’t just price data. It prices direction. And right now, direction is unclear. Volatility isn’t a function of fear -- it’s a function of uncertainty. And uncertainty is policy. 

Which is why I’m not being aggressive about buying this dip. It’s not that I’m bearish on innovation -- the 4th industrial revolution is just getting started with names like $PLTR, $CRWD, $SNOW, $AXON, $NET, $AMZN, and $TSLA. It’s not that I doubt the long-term strength of U.S. enterprise. It’s that I don’t know the rules anymore. And neither does the market. 

Capital doesn’t rush into ambiguity. It pulls back. It reassesses. It maintains optionality. And that’s what’s happening. Under the surface of every investment and every earnings reaction is the same question: can I even model what comes next? 

The truth is, until China blinks -- or Trump backs down -- this is going to be the backdrop. Not because the market is broken. But because it’s working. It’s doing its job. Pricing the regime, not just the risk. 

And if there’s no clarity, there’s no bid. 

We saw what happened on a rumor -- markets ripped 8% in a single day. That’s how starved this market is for any sign of policy coherence. A real deal with China? The tape wouldn’t just rally. It would melt faces. 

But we don’t have that headline. We have noise. We have the sense that something big is happening, but no confirmation of what it is or where it leads. And that’s not a market you trade. That’s a market you survive. 

I don’t say that with cynicism. I say it with clarity. Because what we’re witnessing right now isn’t a cycle. It’s a regime shift. One that views the economic playbook as outdated. One that sees disruption not as risk, but as leverage. 

So no -- this isn’t the detox we were promised. It’s not a thoughtful recalibration of America’s industrial base. It’s not an orderly unwind of global imbalance. It’s a controlled demolition, with no architectural plan for what gets built next. 

And markets, for all their flaws, know better than to bet on blueprints that haven’t been drawn.