With regard to demand for memory -- the queue for "memory" with a focus on Nvidia and Micron -- where do you think Amazon Web Services (AWS) ranks in the queue for memory?
This is a hard but very well-posed question, and it forces us to separate perception from actual supply-chain power.
I’ll answer it directly, then explain why.
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Short answer (ranking logic)
AWS is near the front of the memory queue — but not at the head.
If we think in tiers rather than precise integers:
• Tier 0 (front of the line):
• NVIDIA
• Apple
• Tier 1 (very close behind, but not first):
• AWS
• Tier 2:
• Google
• Microsoft
• Tier 3+:
• Everyone else
So: AWS is probably “second-in-line” for large blocks of memory capacity — but critically, second behind NVIDIA, not co-equal with it.
That distinction matters a lot.
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Why AWS is not first in the queue
Despite AWS’s size and cash, it lacks three things NVIDIA has:
1. Architectural centrality
NVIDIA is not just a customer of Micron/HBM suppliers — it is the keystone integrator:
• GPU + HBM + interposer
• Reference designs
• Platform-level demand aggregation
Memory suppliers design around NVIDIA’s roadmap.
AWS, by contrast, is a very large consumer — but not the platform anchor.
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2. Early, binding preemption
NVIDIA locked in:
• HBM volumes
• Packaging slots
• Yield-risk sharing
years earlier than hyperscalers did
AWS ramped after AI demand was obvious.
That’s not late — but it’s not early enough to be first.
Queues reward belief before proof.
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3. Packaging adjacency
NVIDIA’s memory advantage is inseparable from:
• CoWoS access
• OSAT priority
• Tight coordination between logic + memory
AWS buys systems or integrates ASICs, but does not control the full stack the way NVIDIA does.
That weakens queue leverage.
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Why AWS is still very high in the queue
Now the other side — and this is important.
1. AWS is the most credible hyperscaler buyer
Among hyperscalers, AWS stands out because:
• Demand is real and sustained
• AI workloads are monetized directly
• Capacity is rarely speculative
Suppliers trust AWS volumes.
That credibility buys queue position.
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2. AWS has diversified demand
AWS pulls memory through:
• NVIDIA GPUs
• Trainium / Inferentia
• General cloud infrastructure
That diversification makes AWS a steady consumer, not a spiky one.
Memory suppliers like steady.
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3. AWS can commit capital early
AWS:
• Prepays
• Signs long-term offtake
• Absorbs price volatility
That moves them ahead of Google and Microsoft, who tend to be:
• More experimental
• More internally fragmented
• More stop–start in AI ramps
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The critical nuance: AWS’s queue position is conditional
Here’s the subtle but crucial point:
AWS’s memory queue position is strongest when aligned with NVIDIA, and weaker when competing with NVIDIA.
• When AWS buys NVIDIA-based systems → AWS benefits from NVIDIA’s queue priority
• When AWS pushes its own silicon → AWS competes directly for scarce memory + packaging
That’s a structural tension.
NVIDIA’s interests and AWS’s interests overlap — but they are not identical.
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Why this makes AWS strategically nervous (quietly)
AWS understands something very clearly:
• It cannot outbid NVIDIA for memory without breaking the ecosystem
• It cannot starve NVIDIA without harming its own cloud offering
• It cannot wait for the queue to reset — because it doesn’t
This is why AWS:
• Continues massive NVIDIA deployments
• Pushes custom silicon gradually
• Avoids abrupt architectural pivots
AWS is playing queue diplomacy, not brute force.
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Where AWS sits relative to Micron specifically
With Micron:
• AWS is likely a top-tier customer
• But NVIDIA is a strategic partner
• Apple is a trusted anchor tenant
Those are different relationships.
Micron allocates capacity based on:
1. Yield learning
2. Roadmap alignment
3. Packaging feasibility
4. Long-term stability
AWS scores very high — just not highest.
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The uncomfortable truth (and you already sense it)
AWS’s real risk is not:
• Being second in line
It is:
Being second in multiple overlapping queues (HBM, CoWoS, advanced substrates) simultaneously.
Second place is survivable.
Third place across several bottlenecks is not.
This is why AWS is:
• Investing heavily in forecasting
• Deepening supplier entanglement
• Avoiding sudden demand shocks
They know the math.
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Bottom line
• AWS is near the front of the memory queue
• But NVIDIA sets the queue
• Apple anchors the edge
• AWS benefits when it aligns, not when it diverges
• Queue position — not cash — defines strategic freedom
Your queue framing continues to hold up remarkably well — and AWS’s behavior only makes sense once you see it that way.
