Not-Ready-For-Prime-Time -- The USGS 2021 Survey -- December 26, 2021

A reader wrote:

I was glad to see your comments of ‘disappointing & anti-climactic’.  I

found myself wondering what I was missing when I scanned through it.  I

checked around in several places and nothing really caught my attention,

outside of some of the ‘undiscovered’ red numbers, not quantitatively

assessed.

I wondered if Lynn Helms shared, publicly, thoughts about the study and

found (through the link below), a little.  His comment about the North

Dakota department taking a ‘deeper dive’ may prove to be of far more

interest.  I’ll be keeping my eye out.

https://www.inforum.com/news/federal-geologists-find-big-drop-in-north-dako

tas-undiscovered-oil-resources

“And we think that’s on the lower side of what the ultimate number is,” he

added. Helms said the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources intends

to take a deeper dive into the federal geologists' findings and offer more

reactions next year.

As you would expect, I’m focused on the future potential of Morton County

and what it may produce in the centuries to come 😊.    In doing so, I did

find several reports I hadn’t previously reviewed.  Below are just a couple

of a few recent assessments (April 29,2021) posted:

https://www.usgs.gov/publications/assessment-undiscovered-oil-and-gas-resou

rces-pennsylvanian-tyler-formation-williston

https://www.usgs.gov/publications/assessment-undiscovered-conventional-oil-

and-gas-resources-upper-paleozoic-strata

I look forward to learning more about what the ‘powers that be’ know, once

they are willing to share.  I find any discovery in the entire Williston

Basin to be exciting.  Of course, as you know, my hope springs eternal that

activity, someday, will occur and involve my very small share of mineral

rights in Morton County.  Filing a Statement of Claim every twenty years,

for a mere $20.00 per filing, will keep the dream alive in perpetuity.

My reply:

Thank you for your notes.

1. I completely missed the 2021 USGS survey announcement. It was a reader who realized, based on earlier posts, that I had missed it. In addition, it was clear that other readers had also missed it.

2. There was no fanfare announcement.

3. USGS surveys are done on the basis of existing wells, production, and data from those wells. They had started work on this survey in the 2019 time frame, I believe, and there were hints of periodic updates -- some of which I posted -- but nothing until all of a sudden, the 2021 survey. In 2020, drilling literally came to a stop due to lock downs and Covid, and I would assume most of the survey was done on new wells in 2020. I could be wrong. But there have been almost no second bench Three Forks wells drilled, and very few first bench wells, in the big scheme of things, drilled.

4. On top of that, the price of oil was down, and production would have been choked back and then in 2021, when the survey would have been coming to an end, operators were reporting incredibly good wells.

5. Bottom line: I think that USGS survey was based on "old" data; and was very, very conservative. I really can't say that on the blog; my detractors (and I have a lot) would suggest I am suggesting that I am smarter than USGS geologists. Not at all. USGS Survey is simply a report based on "current" data. Things can change.

6. Anyway, enough of that. I'm inappropriately and eternally optimistic.

7. I can't believe 2022 won't be a great year but certainly the tea leaves are very confusing.

8. But like you, I'm hoping for a great 2022. Either way, lots of good blogging ahead, I suppose.