Friday, December 16, 2022

Beto -- Southern Surge -- December 16, 2022

A reader replied, see below.

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

I always put “every” in quotes because I know it’s less than “every” but the number of counties in west and south Texas that went to Beto was incredible.
If what most folks think is the number one issue in Texas is the southern surge, I would have expected Beto to not carry one county. Sort of like McGovern in 1972
I’ll post the map to make it clear I’m wrong.
The California polls suggest this issue is not as binary as one would think.
The tipping point for me remains Beto’s support along the border.: 

The reader wrote:

You have repeatedly claimed that Beto won every Texas border county.

I let that slide once or twice - but, let's disabuse you of that notion.

Here's 2022



Here's 2018

Here's 2014


And, here's 2010


So, no Beto did not win every Texas county sharing a border with Viejo Mexico, did he?

Actually, he lost Zapata county - and every other Democrat has carried that as far back as 2010.... probably farther if you care to check - I won't.

As a matter of fact, Trump won Zapata in 2020, and it was the first time in 100 years that that county had voted R for President.  

........................

You'd also made the point that Beto carried the urban areas.  (;>)  Other than the fact that Houston couldn't bear to vote for Wendy Davis, that's par for the course.

.......................

The border voting blue is old news.  Entrenched Democrats.  It was not an endorsement of open borders, nor of Beto.  It's business as usual.  

I'm really surprised you bought the "all Beto Border" story.  Do you remember the source?

If so, let's get some whiteout, erasers etc., because they sure buffaloed you.

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