Random comment:
At our monthly Schwab luncheon today I saw a lot of financial slides.
It seemed every slide had at least one item that caught my eye but an item which the speaker did not address.
The question on everyone's mind was the question of "recession": are we already in a recession? If not, what is the likelihood of a recession? And when? And how severe? And how long?
The last recession was 2Q20 and lasted one month (various sources; here's one source).
Looking at all the graphs today, one thing jumped out at me. It certainly appears that the average American consumer is a) a whole lot better off; and, b) a whole lot better prepared going into 2023 than when that same average American consumer woke up on March 13, 2020.
One example: even when the "emergencies" were declared in early 2020, it took a long time to get stimulus money distributed, and the stimulus money fell well short of what was needed, and the stimulus money ended before the need for the aid ended. On the other hand, just as one example, pay for military retirees and social security recipients jumped 8.7% -- which will continue "forever," and likely increase again in 2024.
Another example, Americans placed a lot of cash in their savings accounts during the lock down. They are going into 2023 with a huge amount of cash in savings and already prices are coming down.
I think it's pretty much agreed that the Fed is more likely to overshoot than undershoot its target. But unlike what was going on in late 2019 / early 2020, the American consumer and the entire American economic system is so much better prepared for what comes next. Way better.
Postage stamps:
The one-ounce Forever stamp jumped from 60 cents to 63 cents on January 22, 2023 -- just four days ago. For the archives. The news was so inconsequential, I don't recall seeing even one news story on same.
Apple:
It looks like all the new Apple products are now available at Costco. One Apple purchase at Costco should justify one's annual Costco membership.
No comments:
Post a Comment