Friday, January 17, 2025

A Reply To A Reader's Concern About "Inflation Lasting Longer" -- January 17, 2025

 

Yes. Inflation will last longer. So, what's new? I think everyone knows that. But it's all relative.

US inflation rate, historical.




Investors in the equity market will eventually be more interested in the economy of the US and less interested in whether the Fed makes any more cuts this year, once they realize the Fed won't be making any more cuts this year. But they may not raise rates either?

I remain fully invested in equities betting on the US economy and don't give much thought to what the Fed does (for my personal investing). For me, it's mostly a spectator sport. Jamie Dimon has interesting thoughts on inflation today, in line with my thoughts, and quite strange for a banker, particularly Jamie Dimon, to say that.

I can't believe how good the market did the past two years with high inflation, high interest rates ... and now more of the same?

My wife will love the return she is getting on her fixed income investments.

On a completely different note: if the consensus is that interest rates / inflation will continue to rise, better to buy a house / car now. The $600 monthly car payment now (on a seven-year loan) or $3,000 monthly mortgage on a 30-year house will look very, very "cheap" three years from now. Those new car loans will increase to $750 / month and the mortgages will increase to $4,500. 

As far as the end-of-year money Biden released, it was already in the political pipeline -- just a lot of inside debates about how to spend it -- and it will pale in comparison to how much Trump is going to spend in 2025. And, if California wants any money for the fires, they're going to have to agree to raising the debt limit or getting rid of it altogether.The GOP seems better at doing this than the DEMS.



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