Friday, January 17, 2025

Debt Limit -- January 17, 2025

Debt limit: last full business day of the Trump administration, and Biden's SecTreasury informs the press that using extraordinary measures, "she" can keep the government operating through the inauguration, but then sometime between January 21, 2025, and January 23, 2025, the US will hit the statutory debt limit.

  • this will be a great time to shut down the government, let the incoming administration take a deep breath and start solving the problem in an orderly manner;
  • Trump has dealt with bankruptcy before in his own businesses, so he understands how to manage such temporary problems -- gives him an opportunity to work with creditor to "change" the terms; see box below;
  • if money quits flowing to California and North Carolina, I'm sure the "government" will find ways to come up with the necessary funds
  • it will be interesting what DOGE proposes
    • example: just as American households do, don't shut down the government but prioritize the bills that are going to be paid; and, how much each creditor will be paid;
    • example: suspend all interest payments on government bonds, Treasuries until temporary probably resolved; when payments resume, to include interest;
    • example: freeze all US foreign aid money currently sitting in any stateside (US) bank accounts;
    • example: limit all monthly social security checks to $2,000 (the assumption being that the "rich" get higher SS checks and the poor (those really needing that SS income) are getting smaller checks; the rich won't notice the cut;
    • another example: limit all military pay checks to a max of $4,000 / month 
    • another example: limit all federal pay to a max of $4,000 / month 
    • another example: Medicare: deny all elective surgery; all routine / preventive health visits 
    • another example: huge tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican products effective immediately
    • another example: stop all payments to foreign countries effective immediately pending resolution of a temporary problem
    • of course, all the parks will be closed (LOL)
    • all social security payments, military pay, etc., that was capped will be paid in full with interest once the temporary probably is resolved
  • this will make it #79 -- the 79th time Congress will have to raise the debt limit; 
  • and, if that happens, and I assume it will, this will be the 50th time the debt limit will be raised under a Republican president; almost double the number of times (29) that it has happened under a Democratic president.

 

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