Updates
February 2, 2025: confirming what I opined below, it is being reported in social media, the captain stated on her social media account — now deleted, most likely, but if accurate, who deleted her account — as I was saying, on her social media site, it is being reported she said she had not flown in three years and that she had been assigned to the White House. If this was a check ride, it’s hard to believe she hadn’t flown in three years. But this one’s easy. It will come out in the final report.
February 2, 2025: other than "dotting the i's and crossing the t's," the NTSB could write their report now.
There's really just one more fact to collect: the exact altitude of the helicopter as it went down the Potomac coast. That's it. They may already think they know the altitude but it will be confirmed with the recovered black box.
This is going to be really, really messy. This is going to give Secretary of Defense an opportunity to clean house, certainly at the top echelons of the US Army, if not the entire Pentagon. The ATC involved may escape criminal charges (one assumes he/she has already "lawyered up" and will be found to have been working within rules, regulations, and/or guidelines). The ATC supervisor: ditto. But their careers are over. Best analysis to date: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3PtOdR_VCc. As important as the video is, it is much better if one also reads the comments.
When this mishap investigation is complete (and probably already) the American Airlines CEO "will be fit to be tied," as they say.
February 1, 2025, 5:30 p.m. CT: US Army has released the name of the third victim in the Blackhawk.
Original Note
Original breaking news headline:
Actual headline:
The New York Times: op-ed or news story?
Trump -- turned out to be true:
- Link here. Wall Street Journal. Obama. FAA. DEI.
Where this seems to be going:
- FAA: DEI hires under Obama; WSJ reported; very, very well-known now and widely reported now; much evidence for this
- Washington, DC warnings: too many helicopters; too much traffic at Ronald Reagan
- supervisor let one of two ATC controllers go home early
- tower short-staffed but "normal" and "within rules"
- DOD won't release names of all three personnel on the US Army helicopter; names of enlisted crew member and CWO revealed / released; name of "Captain" on helicopter not release; we do know that the third individual was a woman who had 500 hours flying time ("normal") while the CWO had 1,000 hours flying time ("experienced')
- data suggests (personal opinion; some / much / all being reported elsewhere):
- less than two seconds of almost any change in the timeline of the last two minutes before the impact would have turned this into another "near-miss" and not a collision (reminder, the helicopter hit the aft section of the fixed wing a/c) -- meaning that even if CWO grabbed the "sticks" and did almost anything to change course of helicopter
- helicopter takes evasive action
- helicopter slows down
- fixed wing a/c speeds up
- ATC DEI-hiring policy changed under Obama; led to:
- ATC shortage; currently at 30-year low
- inferior ATC hires
- CWO giving a check ride to the officer
- helicopter deviated from flight path and became a very zig-zag flight route along the river's edge
- helicopter clearly flying above altitude restriction
- required to stay under 200 feet at the location where planes were on final approach
- was 400 to 500 above ground, putting helicopter at same altitude as plane 30 seconds before impact
- February 1, 2025, 5:40 p.m. now being reported by NTSB: "it appears the fixed-wing a/c pitched up at the last second"; says it (NTSB) will take close look at that; did pilot of commercial jet sense collision risk? If so, how?.
- either on purpose or captain pilot struggling or something of that nature
- it would have been impossible for two helicopter personnel up front not to see the plane in front of them (it turns out that may not be entirely true)
- NTSB will focus on:
- qualifications of all personnel involved and their history at ATC or pilots
- ATC failures (several: from a) Obama policies to b) why supervisor let one ATC controller leave early to c) failure to warn helicopter to change course)
- particular background of the helicopter captain
- what was the CWO doing? How did an "experienced" CWO fail to react in time; what did he see / not see
- who was flying the helicopter during the last thirty seconds: the instructor (CWO) or the Captain getting her required check ride?
- purpose of the check ride? annual currency evaluation of the Captain; the evaluator was the more experienced CWO.
- was the flight path / altitude of the helicopter deliberate or a mistake?
- to what degree did night vision goggles contribute to mishap;
- with low light, night vision goggles helpful but with bright lights are night vision goggles "blinding" with light?
- if 99% of this turns out to be straight forward / common sense / simply "pilot error" (that two pilots [one "experienced," one "normal"] missed seeing the plane on final approach and flying erratically], how do we prevent this from happening in the future:
- same procedures for helicopter check rides as when Air Force One is landing at that airport
- for US Army helicopters flying peacetime missions:
- at a minimum: three observers in cockpit: pilot, co-pilot, aircrew qualified individual in jump seat on all check rides in the Washington, DC, area and other high-density flying areas
- perhaps: three observers in cockpit: pilot, co-pilot, aircrew qualified individual in jump seat on all check rides
- FAA needs to re-evaluate rules on "what is acceptable" staffing in ATC towers
- FAA needs to review hiring / testing / certification practices / standards for ATCs
- AI / improved visuals ("iPad"-like modules / heads up displays)
- install avoidance alarms
- install automatic avoidance action without need for pilot input
- review night-vision goggle rules and procedures
- has flying (and autonomous vehicles) become way too complex for DOT to manage
- do we need to break up DOT into at least two new Cabinet-level agencies?
- Air-DOT: ADOT
- Ground-DOT: GDOT
- is there a "jump seat" on the Blackhawk helicopter?
- other questions:
- do autonomous driving automobiles now offered for the general public (Tesla, Waymo) have better avoidance systems than US military a/c and commercial a/c?
- what has the DOT inspector general been doing for the past three presidential administrations -- qualifications of the DOT inspector general? Qualifications of secretary, DOT/
If I can think of all this stuff in five minutes, I would assume the NSTB can come up with a whole lot more in twelve months of researching this collision.
