A Turn Toward Conservatism -- Trump -- Vance -- 2028 And Beyond -- February 23, 2025

A reader suggested, like the McKinley era, we could be headed for 12 - 16 years of conservatism.

My reply: 

Good morning, all

1. I will withhold judgement on the "McKinley" question until at least the mid-terms.

2. Under Biden, the pendulum simply swung too far left and now the pendulum is swinging back to the right. There's a huge possibility that the pendulum will now swing too far right, and the GOP could lose the US Senate and the US House in two years.

3. I have concerns  whether Congress will actually codify the vast number of executive orders signed by Trump. If the EOs, are not codified, then they are subject to being easily overturned.

4. I was disappointed to see the "bureaucratic response by the SecDOT regarding the California Bullet Train. He came out with a typical Bidenesque comment: we will do an audit. No, the response should have been: all federal money will be withheld from all California transportation projects -- including highways, interstates, seaports, airports -- until California itself provides an audit of the Bullet Train that is acceptable to the federal government.

5. That's my biggest concern: there are few folks like Trump and Vance who are willing to move very, very quickly, -- a take-no-prisoners, shoot-first-think-later mentality. Kristy Noem and Pete Hegseth might be exceptions. It will be interesting to see if Kash Patel moves 1,500 FBI agents out of Washington. And the list goes on. Even Trump is starting to waffle on tariffs. Waffling makes him look vulnerable.

6. It's going to be a fine needle to thread to institute huge tariffs without crashing the stock market (Walmart) and driving up inflation.

7. With regard to Williams McKinley, things are much, much different now than then:

   a.  the culture is much, much, much different; the two-sex-only theory is scientifically incorrect; banning obvious abuses in the sexual identify arena should be dealt with (no "xy" playing on "xx" sports after age 14, for example); but, after that, it gets squishy. I saw many examples of sexual identity issues while practicing as a pediatrician that were very legitimate;

   b. AI will have a huge impact and it hasn't even rally begun;

   c. streaming, podcasts, etc, change everything -- my wife and I live in two completely different political universes.

  d. the migration / immigration story is still being sorted out;

  e. Women's Rights have been pushed back to the pre-1960s in the eyes of many. Regardless of what side of the issue one is on, that's a fact: in the eyes of many the GOP is not a friend of Women's Rights. 

8. Those are national issues; we haven't even gotten to the international issues.

9. All it takes to turn everything in the opposite direction is a charismatic JFK to show up (it's not Pete Buttigieg), two more major civilian mid-air crashes, any major US military miss-step (a US submarine lost at sea or a major nuclear accident), and any change -- any change -- to social security.

10. So, I'm holding judgement until at least the midterms. And even then, at most, it might show a "trend," but it won't necessarily mean anything in four years.

Bruce

Chairman, Joint Chiefs Of Staff -- February 21, 2025

Of course, The New York Times is aghast.

Isn't it normal for all presidents to choose their own Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff?

See Joint Chiefs of Staff. All appointed by Biden.

Requires confirmation by the US Senate.

Current Chairman:

• appointed by Biden after Trump 1.0's Chairman

Current chairman:

• born in 1962 but exact date of birth not known? how does this happen; what shows up in his official documents?
• 41 years active duty service; mandatory retirement, 30 years except for general officers
• 63 years old; young by many standards, but 30-year officer would retire in mid-50s.
• I'm not sure why he didn't offer his resignation when Trump was elected? That should practically be standard.
• every entry regarding current chairman focuses on is ethnic background. At some point, it gets old, it gets tedious. 
  

The Fed -- JPow -- Trump Tariffs -- Liars And Hypocrites -- Wednesday -- February 19, 2025

 Link here.

In testimony over the past few weeks, when asked, Fed chair JPow consistently said that the Fed doesn't worry about "policy" when they (the Fed) considers and sets rates, and yet, here we are.

Either I'm misreading him or misheard or JPow is a liar, also. Like all the rest in Washington, DC. But I know he was asked about Trump's tariffs and he avoided answering the question.

Ukraine -- February 19, 2025

 

Ukraine. Mike Walatz, National Security Advisor, has it exactly right. Trump wants the war over. "Everyone" else, it seems, wants the war to continue. Again, Trump has a self-imposed 100-day deadline. I wouldn't bet against Trump on this one. Eminently qualified but wow, he has a tough story to sell the American public (most of whom have long gotten bored with this story). From wiki:

Michael George Glen Waltz, 51 years old, is an American politician, businessman, author, and former Army Special Forces officer who is the 29th and current U.S. National Security Advisor.

He previously served as the U.S. representative for Florida's 6th congressional district from 2019 to 2025.

He is a member of the Republican Party and is the first Army Special Forces soldier to be elected to the United States Congress. Waltz received four Bronze Stars while serving in the Special Forces during multiple combat tours in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and Africa.

He served in the Bush administration as a defense policy director in the Pentagon and as counterterrorism advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney. In 2018, Waltz won election to the House of Representatives, defeating former ambassador Nancy Soderberg and succeeded Ron DeSantis, who was elected the 46th governor of Florida that same year. He was re-elected in 2020, 2022, and 2024 with over 60% of the vote in each election.

Waltz served as chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness for the 118th United States Congress. 

"Ukraine start this." Folks are misreading Trump on this one.

Trump's Ukraine? Biden's Afghanistan?

Trump -- SDNY -- Mayor Adams -- February 18, 2025

I've never had so much fun watching Trump play chess.

A federal judge is not going to rubber stamp Trump's request to drop case against NYC mayor Adams.

I assume this is a federal case; if so, Trump can pardon NYC mayor Adams. Link here.

So, let the federal judge do what he wants. 

Trump holds the trump card. LOL.

Presidents Are Transformatinal -- February 16, 2025

A reader sent me this link: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recession-begins-dc-active-housing-listings-soar-jobless-claims-spike-doge-drains-swamp.

My reply: I’m waiting for Trump to announce the following moves:

• presidential operations will move to his Florida White House, 
• taking the entire West Wing with him and leaving Musk, Rubio, Hespeth, and Bondi in DC.
• vice president's office will remain in Washington, DC, to be close to the US Senate
  
• Dept of Government Efficiency to remain in DC 
• transition DOGE to new department, the Department of Technology: Stanford, CA
  
• intel operations will remain in the DC area
• Dept of Energy will be divided into three divisions
• nuclear: Los Alamos, NM (alternates: Chicago, Princeton)
  
• fossil fuel: Ft Worth, TX
• all else: Denver, CO
  
• Homeland Security office will be moved to El Paso, TX.
• Health and Human Services
• surveillance, research: Atlanta, Georgia
  
• benefits (social security, medicare): North Hero, Vermont
  
• Commerce: Seattle, Washington
  
• Dept of Interior to Utah.
• Defense, Justice, FBI, stay in DC area. 
• Treasury to NYC or Boston, including the Fed.  
• IRS will remain in current locations
  
• NASA is broken into two divisions
• theoretical: NASA East stays in Florida.
• commercial applications: NASA West (Musk/Texas)
• FEMA: Califonria -- FEMA until the agency becomes solely a go-between  the White House and the states' own FEMA operations
  
• Department of Education to Iowa, until it, too, becomes purely a go-between between the White House and states' own education operations
  
• Department of Veterans Affairs, to be co-located with existing military bases: 
• west coast, Camp Pendleton (US Marines)
  
• west coast, south, San Diego (Navy)
  
• east coast: North Carolina's Fort Bragg (Amry)
  
• south: San Antonio, TX (Army) -- Fort Sam Houston
• west, central: US Air Force -- Colorado Springs
• Department of Agriculture: Moline, Illinois
• Housing and Urban Development: Mar-A-Lago
• Labor: Detroit
• Dept of Transportation: Detroit
• Trade Representative
• west: China / San Francisco, CA
  
• south: Mexico / San Antonio, TX
• north: Canada / Detroit unless Canada becomes 51st stage
• east: EU / Bangor, Maine
  

What Goes Around, Comes Around -- Judges -- February 15, 2025

Link here.

February 13, 2025

 

With YouTube, evening news is now history, now passe.

The Blue: my hunch -- law-abiding citizens will have no patience with local law enforcement not willing to help ICE. Me: I've lost interest, but will occasionally report it for the archives.

Eric Adams: NYC mayor -- "he said, she said." No dog in this fight, but as a spectator, I'm cheering for Eric Adams. His crime: flying Turkish Air Lines -- the airlines upgraded his seating to First Class or some such thing.

Flooding and mudslides: southern California.

Ukraine: it's all over for Zelensky; it will be interesting to see what the EU will do. Oh-oh! Gut check for Germany. I've lost interest in this WWI-trench warfare and ready to move on. The only question: will the war be over within Trump's first 100 days?

Only question: what in the world was Biden doing for four years?

CFOs: earning their pay. Tariffs on-again, off-again, creating havoc. It's a spectator sport watching the C-suite praising Trump but fighting Trump's initiatives.

Market: whoo-hoo! 

That asteroid:

• 2.3% chance of crashing into earth at Christmas, 2032
• if it does hit, it will hit the ocean in the southern hemisphere
• it it does hit, it will. have no "impact" on humans, except perhaps tsunamis for those island nations looking for climate change money. 
• some islands could disappear
  
• it appears, NBC Nightly News has run out of Trump-is-a-boogeman-scare stories and now reporting asteroids, reminding folks that it was an asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs.
• big question: will the stranded NASA astronauts be home by then?

Inflation: Reminder -- Trump Has Not Yet Been President for Thirty Days -- February 23, 2025

 

Quick! Pick out the outlying data point, link here:

The Fed was either clueless or trying to throw the election. Link here.

Oh, oh. Link here.

I Have Never Had So Much Fun Reading Liberal Media -- The New Yorker, The Atlantic, The New York Times -- February 11, 2025

Reading liberal literature in the Trump Era -- priceless.

Perhaps what I enjoy most: the liberal press showing their utter prejudices and their utter stupidity. 

But the writing is generally good.

Today's note from The Atlantic regarding Elon Musk is a particular great example of how the liberal press misreads Elon -- either on purpose (lying) or due to stupidity (unlikely).

I'm reminded of many characters in Casablanca.

Link to The Atlantic article on Elon Musk here.

I was incredibly stupid with regard to Elon Musk years ago. But that was years ago. LOL.

Two Weeks Into His Presidency -- February 8, 2025

 From Powerline: some of the best -- so many could be posted, but we will limit ourselves to three or four:

Deportation

 Wow, talk about a story with no substance. Let's talk border crossings.

Kennedy Center -- President Trump Names Himself Chairperson -- February 8, 2025

I think after President Biden pardoned his extended family as he was leaving office literally "everything" is on the table. 

Link to The Washington Post. An incredibly long story that took forever to answer the question. 

Apparently Trump is in the process of "firing" most sitting members of the board.

Link to The New York Times.

The Kennedy Center said in a statement on Friday evening that it had not received any communication from the White House regarding the changes to its board and acknowledged that some board members had received termination notices.

“Per the Center’s governance established by Congress in 1958, the chair of the board of trustees is appointed by the center’s board members,” the statement said. “There is nothing in the center’s statute that would prevent a new administration from replacing board members; however, this would be the first time such action has been taken with the Kennedy Center’s board.”

During his first term, Mr. Trump broke with tradition by declining to attend the Kennedy Center Honors, the group’s hallmark program, after some honorees criticized him.

Mr. Trump’s plan to remake the board would break with years of precedent at the Kennedy Center, which has long prided itself on a tradition of bipartisanship. It was the latest example of his efforts to upend norms in Washington in the first 100 days of his second term.

After our experience with Bill Clinton, we need to define what it means to say that the organization "has long prided itself on a tradition of bipartisanship."

Throwing The Baby Out With The Bath Water -- The Trump 2.0 Administration -- February 4, 2025

Dismantling the $40-billion-a-year USAID agency appears to have been dismantled literally overnight. They threw out a lot of good stuff. The problem was there was a lot of really, really bad stuff in that $40-billion-a-year program. Before you question that, go through line-by-line what USAID was buying where they were sending taxpayers' money, and see if the money flowing through the agency is fully accounted for. 

When the pendulum swings this far in one direction it tells me that the pendulum had clearly swung too far in the other direction.

F-35s At Eielson AFB, Fairbanks, Alaska

USAF: the most interesting thing I learned today: F-35s at Eielson AFB, Alaska.

************************
The SR-71

The most interesting documentary I watched today: the SR-71 and Brian Shul.

Link here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFJMs15sVSY&t=1484s. 

*********************
Cottage Cheese

The best article on food this week: link here.

Venezuela -- Trump 2.0 -- February 2, 2025

 This is simply one piece of the whole story.

For the past four years this has gone unchecked. What the hell was the Biden administration doing?

 

 

Fauci: Financial Gain -- Not Good; RFK, Jr: Financial Gain -- Good -- The Hypocrisy Of Some -- February 1, 2025

Fauci:

 

RFK, Jr:

• link here.
• link here: will revise ethics form -- giving his financial interests in vaccine issues to his son!
  

Clickbait -- Turned Out To Be True -- This Did Not Age Well -- NY Times -- Crash -- February 1, 2025

Updates

February 2, 2025: confirming what I opined below, it is being reported in social media, the captain stated on her social media account — now deleted, most likely, but if accurate, who deleted her account — as I was saying, on her social media site, it is being reported she said she had not flown in three years and that she had been assigned to the White House. If this was a check ride, it’s hard to believe she hadn’t flown in three years. But this one’s easy. It will come out in the final report.

February 2, 2025: other than "dotting the i's and crossing the t's," the NTSB could write their report now. 

There's really just one more fact to collect: the exact altitude of the helicopter as it went down the Potomac coast. That's it. They may already think they know the altitude but it will be confirmed with the recovered black box.

This is going to be really, really messy. This is going to give Secretary of Defense an opportunity to clean house, certainly at the top echelons of the US Army, if not the entire Pentagon. The ATC involved may escape criminal charges (one assumes he/she has already "lawyered up" and will be found to have been working within rules, regulations, and/or guidelines). The ATC supervisor: ditto. But their careers are over. Best analysis to date: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3PtOdR_VCc. As important as the video is, it is much better if one also reads the comments.

When this mishap investigation is complete (and probably already) the American Airlines CEO "will be fit to be tied," as they say.

February 1, 2025, 5:30 p.m. CT: US Army has released the name of the third victim in the Blackhawk.

Original Note

Original breaking news headline:

Actual headline:

The New York Times:  op-ed or news story?

Trump -- turned out to be true:

• Link here. Wall Street Journal. Obama. FAA. DEI.

Where this seems to be going:

• FAA: DEI hires under Obama; WSJ reported; very, very well-known now and widely reported now; much evidence for this
  
• Washington, DC warnings: too many helicopters; too much traffic at Ronald Reagan
• supervisor let one of two ATC controllers go home early
• tower short-staffed but "normal" and "within rules"
  
• DOD won't release names of all three personnel on the US Army helicopter; names of enlisted crew member and CWO revealed / released; name of "Captain" on helicopter not release; we do know that the third individual was a woman who had 500 hours flying time ("normal") while the CWO  had 1,000 hours flying time ("experienced')
• data suggests (personal opinion; some / much / all being reported elsewhere):
  
• less than two seconds of almost any change in the timeline of the last two minutes before the impact would have turned this into another "near-miss" and not a collision (reminder, the helicopter hit the aft section of the fixed wing a/c) -- meaning that even if CWO grabbed the "sticks" and did almost anything to change course of helicopter
  
• helicopter takes evasive action
• helicopter slows down
• fixed wing a/c speeds up
  
• ATC DEI-hiring policy changed under Obama; led to:
• ATC shortage; currently at 30-year low
• inferior ATC hires
  
• CWO giving a check ride to the officer
• helicopter deviated from flight path and became a very zig-zag flight route along the river's edge
• helicopter clearly flying above altitude restriction
• required to stay under 200 feet at the location where planes were on final approach
• was 400 to 500 above ground, putting helicopter at same altitude as plane 30 seconds before impact
• February 1, 2025, 5:40 p.m. now being reported by NTSB: "it appears the fixed-wing a/c pitched up at the last second"; says it (NTSB) will take close look at that; did pilot of commercial jet sense collision risk? If so, how?.
  
• either on purpose or captain pilot struggling or something of that nature
• it would have been impossible for two helicopter personnel up front not to see the plane in front of them (it turns out that may not be entirely true)
  
• NTSB will focus on:
• qualifications of all personnel involved and their history at ATC or pilots
  
• ATC failures (several: from a) Obama policies to b) why supervisor let one ATC controller leave early to c) failure to warn helicopter to change course)
• particular background of the helicopter captain
  
• what was the CWO doing? How did an "experienced" CWO fail to react in time; what did he see / not see
• who was flying the helicopter during the last thirty seconds: the instructor (CWO) or the Captain getting her required check ride?
• purpose of the check ride? annual currency evaluation of the Captain; the evaluator was the more experienced CWO.
  
• was the flight path / altitude of the helicopter deliberate or a mistake?
• to what degree did night vision goggles contribute to mishap; 
• with low light, night vision goggles helpful but with bright lights are night vision goggles "blinding" with light?
  
• if 99% of this turns out to be straight forward / common sense / simply "pilot error"  (that two pilots [one "experienced," one "normal"] missed seeing the plane on final approach and flying erratically], how do we prevent this from happening in the future:
  
• same procedures for helicopter check rides as when Air Force One is landing at that airport
• for US Army helicopters flying peacetime missions:
• at a minimum: three observers in cockpit: pilot, co-pilot, aircrew qualified individual in jump seat on all check rides in the Washington, DC, area and other high-density flying areas
  
• perhaps: three observers in cockpit: pilot, co-pilot, aircrew qualified individual in jump seat on all check rides 
• FAA needs to re-evaluate rules on "what is acceptable" staffing in ATC towers 
• FAA needs to review hiring / testing / certification practices / standards for ATCs
• AI / improved visuals ("iPad"-like modules / heads up displays)
• install avoidance alarms
• install automatic avoidance action without need for pilot input
  
• review night-vision goggle rules and procedures
• has flying (and autonomous vehicles) become way too complex for DOT to manage
• do we need to break up DOT into at least two new Cabinet-level agencies?
• Air-DOT: ADOT
• Ground-DOT: GDOT
  
• is there a "jump seat" on the Blackhawk helicopter?
• yes 
• other questions:
• do autonomous driving automobiles now offered for the general public (Tesla, Waymo) have better avoidance systems than US military a/c and commercial a/c?
• what has the DOT inspector general been doing for the past three presidential administrations -- qualifications of the DOT inspector general? Qualifications of secretary, DOT/

If I can think of all this stuff in five minutes, I would assume the NSTB can come up with a whole lot more in twelve months of researching this collision.