A Turn Toward Conservatism -- Trump -- Vance -- 2028 And Beyond -- February 23, 2025

A reader suggested, like the McKinley era, we could be headed for 12 - 16 years of conservatism.

My reply: 

Good morning, all

1. I will withhold judgement on the "McKinley" question until at least the mid-terms.

2. Under Biden, the pendulum simply swung too far left and now the pendulum is swinging back to the right. There's a huge possibility that the pendulum will now swing too far right, and the GOP could lose the US Senate and the US House in two years.

3. I have concerns  whether Congress will actually codify the vast number of executive orders signed by Trump. If the EOs, are not codified, then they are subject to being easily overturned.

4. I was disappointed to see the "bureaucratic response by the SecDOT regarding the California Bullet Train. He came out with a typical Bidenesque comment: we will do an audit. No, the response should have been: all federal money will be withheld from all California transportation projects -- including highways, interstates, seaports, airports -- until California itself provides an audit of the Bullet Train that is acceptable to the federal government.

5. That's my biggest concern: there are few folks like Trump and Vance who are willing to move very, very quickly, -- a take-no-prisoners, shoot-first-think-later mentality. Kristy Noem and Pete Hegseth might be exceptions. It will be interesting to see if Kash Patel moves 1,500 FBI agents out of Washington. And the list goes on. Even Trump is starting to waffle on tariffs. Waffling makes him look vulnerable.

6. It's going to be a fine needle to thread to institute huge tariffs without crashing the stock market (Walmart) and driving up inflation.

7. With regard to Williams McKinley, things are much, much different now than then:

   a.  the culture is much, much, much different; the two-sex-only theory is scientifically incorrect; banning obvious abuses in the sexual identify arena should be dealt with (no "xy" playing on "xx" sports after age 14, for example); but, after that, it gets squishy. I saw many examples of sexual identity issues while practicing as a pediatrician that were very legitimate;

   b. AI will have a huge impact and it hasn't even rally begun;

   c. streaming, podcasts, etc, change everything -- my wife and I live in two completely different political universes.

  d. the migration / immigration story is still being sorted out;

  e. Women's Rights have been pushed back to the pre-1960s in the eyes of many. Regardless of what side of the issue one is on, that's a fact: in the eyes of many the GOP is not a friend of Women's Rights. 

8. Those are national issues; we haven't even gotten to the international issues.

9. All it takes to turn everything in the opposite direction is a charismatic JFK to show up (it's not Pete Buttigieg), two more major civilian mid-air crashes, any major US military miss-step (a US submarine lost at sea or a major nuclear accident), and any change -- any change -- to social security.

10. So, I'm holding judgement until at least the midterms. And even then, at most, it might show a "trend," but it won't necessarily mean anything in four years.

Bruce