Investing In Quantum Computing -- June 14, 2025

With regard to investing in quantum computing, what would you recommend for a 20-year-old investor with minimal experience in investing? 

From ChatGPT:

Excellent — you’re looking at this exactly right: for a 20-year-old new investor, quantum computing can be fascinating but high risk. Let me quickly frame this for you:

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Quantum Computing: High-Risk, Long-Horizon Play

At age 20, you have the biggest asset: time. Quantum computing may take 10–20 years to fully mature commercially. So, a small speculative allocation might make sense alongside a core portfolio.

Here’s a simplified way to look at the most “investable” companies for a new investor:

My advice for a 20-year-old investor:

1. Core first: (80%)
   

   Build your portfolio mostly around index funds (e.g., S&P 500 ETFs like VOO or SPY).

2. Speculative sleeve: (15%)

   Consider allocating ~1-5% to high-risk speculative plays like IonQ or Rigetti.
   

   Big Tech with quantum exposure: MSFT, GOOGL, IBM (10%)
   Pure Quantum Plays: IONQ, RGTI (5%)
   

3. Diversify your quantum exposure:

   You’re already getting indirect exposure through companies like Microsoft, Google, and IBM.

4. Stay informed:

   Follow quantum tech news — things change fast here.

5. Don’t FOMO into hype cycles:

   Quantum stocks can swing wildly based on press releases and investor sentiment.

   ChatGPT will build three investment strategies:

   • Core (80%): see above
   • Sleeve (15%): see above
   • Moonshot (5%): see below.

   Moonshot, quick example:

   Let’s say you start with $5,000:

   • $2,500 — VTI (US stock index)

   • $1,000 — VXUS (international index)

   • $500 — BND (bonds or cash equivalent)

   • $500 — MSFT + GOOGL + IBM (big tech)

   • $250 — IONQ

   • $250 — ARKQ or similar

   From my perspective: the BND (bonds or cash equivalent) does nothing for the portfolio; the analyst is simply investing using "old school" percentages. If the $500 is simply a place to park cash to build up a position of cash from which to make future equity purchases, the that's fine. But thinking that 10% of an investment in a bond fund will help even out the volatility is crazy. 

   I suppose re-allocating on a monthly basis might be a reason for a position in bonds or cash.

   So, for example, when the larger bucket (VTI) exceeds 50% of total portfolio, see something and re-invest the proceeds in any of the other buckets that are less than their recommended percent (20%, 10%, 10%, 5%, 5%). 

   But, wow, that's still an incredibly conservative equity portfolio.

   How about: 
   

   • VTI: 25% (unfortunately that already included a lot of Big Tech)
   • VXUS: 25%
   • big tech: 30%
   • pure quantum: 20%

   Because VTI already includes so much Big Tech, how about:
   

   • VXUS: 25%
   • VTI: 15%
   • top four of the magnificent seven: 35%
   • pure quantum: 25%