Updates
August 8, 2025: another example of where Apple / Samsung are. Link here. Apple was the first to market dual chips, and then two-layer stacked chips, and now three-layer stacked sensors.
August 8, 2205: Intel's CEO, under attack from Trump, is already at odds with his board. Link here.
Original Post
My reply, not ready-for-prime time. There are likely many typographical and content errors:
Intel has been unable to make chips to the specifications that Apple wants / needs.
[On
top of that: lots of bad blood between Intel and Apple. Decades ago,
Steve Jobs went to Intel first when he needed help with chips for his
newly conceived iPhone and Intel said they would not deal with Steve
Jobs. Steve Jobs probably left a handwritten note to Tim Cook reminding
him of that and had the note glued to the refrigerator in Tim Cook's
kitchen. LOL]
In
most recent earnings guidance, Intel amazingly even went so far to say
that they won't begin manufacturing their new chips (14A) if they don't
have any customers. Their 14A chip was slated to begin in 2026 or 2027
-- I forget when -- but by then the industry will be even farther along.
Intel
could have the best chips in the world right now but MOJO isn't there.
Too many other options. But having said that, nothing surprises me. If
Intel picks the CEO that Trump wants, things could change overnight.
Being reported right now on CNBC: Intel's current CEO has confirmed
history of dealing illegally with Chinese some years ago. Or something
along that line.
Apple
has three, maybe four divisions, which I've written about before. I
consider each of the three (or four) trillion-dollar divisions and Apple
Silicon is their chip division. By market cap, it may be the biggest
chipmaker in the world. I could be way wrong on that, but Apple Silicon
makes a lot of chips. Remember: Apple has 2.35 billion devices
worldwide.
Apple
Silicon designs their own chips and TSMC is making those chips in
Phoenix. Not all Apple chips are made there but enough to keep everyone
happy and over time, all Apple ships will be made in the US even without
Intel.
Apple
has its Apple Silicon supply chain "end-to-end" strategic plan
complete. Even if they got Intel for free, Tim Cook would probably not
be interested.
So,
Tim Cook just completed a most amazing pivot that was announced in the
White House yesterday -- the Apple American Production Company.
So the CHIP strategy is complete. Tim Cook now moves on to AI and satellites.
Now
they move on to satellite connection for global reach (Africa, India,
China, much of Australia) -- Starlink; Kuiper; and a third one that is
specific for Apple which I've forgotten; T-Mobile to Starlink is already
in place.
AI:
I think Apple has a "just good enough" interim AI plan but long term
it's still being worked. I had an incredible idea for Apple AI,
satellites, and passed it by ChatGPT which was, of course, laudatory.
LOL. After posting it, I realized why it won't work -- Sam Altman and
Elon Musk hate each other. So, Apple has a huge choice: go with the best
(Sam Altman / OpenAI) or go with the "other" two bests: Anthropic or
Perplexity.
*******************
The
most amazing thing: Apple spends almost no "new" money on CAPEX ...
what Tim Cook announced in White House yesterday was pretty much already
announced. Yesterday, it was just marketed as a much more coherent
policy. But $600 billion over four years -- LOL -- $150 billion / year
for a $3 trillion market cap company.
******************
The one company that could be a real sleeper: Qualcomm.
It's going to be a shootout between Apple's C1 and Qualcomm's X85 5G Modem-RF.
Of
all my tech, QCOM is the most worrisome but after another look at the
two cell phones / satellite modems -- it comes down to Apple vs Android,
C1 vs X85 5G Modem-RF.
If
one were going to invest in only two or three cell chip / tech
companies, QCOM would not by on my list, but I have a lot of it and have
had it for years.
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