Before I post the next three graphics, has ABC Nightly News reported the Australian Covid-19 situation in Australia any evening this past month? I don't think so.
But ABC Nightly News did have enough interest to report the brush / forest fires that threatened the marsupials in Australia in 2019.
The graphics:
Wow, wow, wow, things are moving very, very quickly.
The virus / infection story itself is running very, very quickly, and this whole thing, medically and scientifically is going to come to an end very quickly.
Politically, administratively, whatever one calls it, may drag things out -- that's fine -- but the virus itself is coming to an end.
This is absolutely fascinating.
This virus has mutated beautifully:
Whether the virus disappears completely or lays low, ending in a low-virulent endemic, less significant than "seasonal flu,” is yet to be seen.
Right now it would be interesting to know more about how Spanish flu ended.
Look at these four links and the whole thing is becoming very, very clear:
There is a huge amount of valuable information in that third link.
If the Omicron variant confers significant immunity / cross-coverage against the more lethal variants, this pretty much spells the end of Covid-19. One suspects by late spring, the medical story should be over.
By then, the US Supreme Court should have ruled on the various Federal mandates.
Russia’s Gazprom hasn’t booked transit capacity for Monday for natural gas exports via a key pipeline route to Germany, which was sending gas eastwards for a sixth consecutive day. [Sending gas eastwards: normally, Russia supplies Poland and western Europe with natural gas. This year, that pipeline was reversed; natural gas is being sent from Germany to Poland.]
Gazprom has not booked transit export capacity via the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Belarus to Poland and Germany for December 27, Reuters reported on Monday, citing results from a daily auction.
At the same time, gas on the Yamal-Europe pipeline was flowing in the reverse direction from Germany to Poland for a six consecutive day on Monday.
Typically, lower Russian gas deliveries to Europe would lead to a spike in Europe’s benchmark gas prices, but after setting a new record early last week, gas prices in Europe plunged later in the week and continued to slide on Monday, due to forecasts of milder weather, U.S. LNG cargoes flocking to Europe, and low trading activity around the Christmas holiday.
Last Tuesday, European gas prices jumped to an all-time high after gas on the Yamal-Europe pipeline reversed flow eastward and freezing temperatures took hold in many parts of Europe. The benchmark price for Europe at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) surged by 11 percent to a record 162.78 euros per megawatt-hour on December 21.
As prices in Europe soared to records and pushed regional LNG prices way above the Asian LNG benchmark and 14 times higher than the U.S. Henry Hub price, tankers with liquefied natural gas from the United States headed to Europe. Ten LNG tankers from the U.S. have already declared Europe as their destination while another 20 cargoes appear to be crossing the Atlantic en route to Europe.
I assume the above was as factual as we will get. Comments:
A reader wrote:
I was glad to see your comments of ‘disappointing & anti-climactic’. Ifound myself wondering what I was missing when I scanned through it. Ichecked around in several places and nothing really caught my attention,outside of some of the ‘undiscovered’ red numbers, not quantitativelyassessed.I wondered if Lynn Helms shared, publicly, thoughts about the study andfound (through the link below), a little. His comment about the NorthDakota department taking a ‘deeper dive’ may prove to be of far moreinterest. I’ll be keeping my eye out.tas-undiscovered-oil-resources“And we think that’s on the lower side of what the ultimate number is,” headded. Helms said the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources intendsto take a deeper dive into the federal geologists' findings and offer morereactions next year.As you would expect, I’m focused on the future potential of Morton Countyand what it may produce in the centuries to come 😊. In doing so, I didfind several reports I hadn’t previously reviewed. Below are just a coupleof a few recent assessments (April 29,2021) posted:rces-pennsylvanian-tyler-formation-willistonand-gas-resources-upper-paleozoic-strataI look forward to learning more about what the ‘powers that be’ know, oncethey are willing to share. I find any discovery in the entire WillistonBasin to be exciting. Of course, as you know, my hope springs eternal thatactivity, someday, will occur and involve my very small share of mineralrights in Morton County. Filing a Statement of Claim every twenty years,for a mere $20.00 per filing, will keep the dream alive in perpetuity.
My reply:
Thank you for your notes.1. I completely missed the 2021 USGS survey announcement. It was a reader who realized, based on earlier posts, that I had missed it. In addition, it was clear that other readers had also missed it.2. There was no fanfare announcement.3. USGS surveys are done on the basis of existing wells, production, and data from those wells. They had started work on this survey in the 2019 time frame, I believe, and there were hints of periodic updates -- some of which I posted -- but nothing until all of a sudden, the 2021 survey. In 2020, drilling literally came to a stop due to lock downs and Covid, and I would assume most of the survey was done on new wells in 2020. I could be wrong. But there have been almost no second bench Three Forks wells drilled, and very few first bench wells, in the big scheme of things, drilled.4. On top of that, the price of oil was down, and production would have been choked back and then in 2021, when the survey would have been coming to an end, operators were reporting incredibly good wells.5. Bottom line: I think that USGS survey was based on "old" data; and was very, very conservative. I really can't say that on the blog; my detractors (and I have a lot) would suggest I am suggesting that I am smarter than USGS geologists. Not at all. USGS Survey is simply a report based on "current" data. Things can change.6. Anyway, enough of that. I'm inappropriately and eternally optimistic.7. I can't believe 2022 won't be a great year but certainly the tea leaves are very confusing.8. But like you, I'm hoping for a great 2022. Either way, lots of good blogging ahead, I suppose.
Smallpox: eradicated by herd immunity? USA Today.
Because immunity varies with age and not everyone can get vaccinated — such as those who are immunocompromised, have specific allergies or pregnant women with certain types of vaccines — herd immunity is a crucial protective phenomenon. To establish it, one important factor is the number of immunized people within a population has to be at a certain percentage or threshold. According to the WHO, this figure was eight out of every 10 people for smallpox, based on its early eradication effort.
And because pathogens are not confined by geographical borders, this 80% immunization or higher is not a threshold restricted to one population — it has to be shared by all, whether at a local, national or global level. This means if any populations have vaccination rates below the threshold, there is a great risk for disease transmission to other unvaccinated or vulnerable individuals, even in populations with adequate herd immunity, such as in the case with measles outbreaks in recent years.
For smallpox, this homogeneity in vaccination rates across varying populations was only successfully achieved with mass smallpox vaccination, as claimed by the Facebook post.
A second important determinant for herd immunity is how long biological immunity against a pathogen lasts. While immunological memory forms with every new infectious encounter, this can fade over time, which is why booster shots are typically given. Smallpox immunity unfortunately does decline — after five to 10 years — but it is believed vaccinated individuals still have some protection against fatal outcomes should an outbreak, in the very rare event, reappear.
Routine smallpox vaccination in the U.S. was stopped in 1972, after it was declared eradicated. The CDC only recommends the vaccine to lab workers who work with smallpox or smallpox-like viruses, and to those who need long-term protection like military personnel.
That's probably as good a summary I've seen in mainstream media. Which raises two questions:
Ivory Tower: associate professor epidemiology of Yale School of Public Health, a 2018 MacArthur Fellow, --
Covid-19: almost no indication of asymptomatic spread, the NFL chief medical officer. It's as good as any "science" Dr Fauci cites. Link here.
Spanish flu; burned itself out after about four years.
Smallpox: eradicated by herd immunity? USA Today.
Because immunity varies with age and not everyone can get vaccinated — such as those who are immunocompromised, have specific allergies or pregnant women with certain types of vaccines — herd immunity is a crucial protective phenomenon. To establish it, one important factor is the number of immunized people within a population has to be at a certain percentage or threshold. According to the WHO, this figure was eight out of every 10 people for smallpox, based on its early eradication effort.
And because pathogens are not confined by geographical borders, this 80% immunization or higher is not a threshold restricted to one population — it has to be shared by all, whether at a local, national or global level. This means if any populations have vaccination rates below the threshold, there is a great risk for disease transmission to other unvaccinated or vulnerable individuals, even in populations with adequate herd immunity, such as in the case with measles outbreaks in recent years.
For smallpox, this homogeneity in vaccination rates across varying populations was only successfully achieved with mass smallpox vaccination, as claimed by the Facebook post.
A second important determinant for herd immunity is how long biological immunity against a pathogen lasts. While immunological memory forms with every new infectious encounter, this can fade over time, which is why booster shots are typically given. Smallpox immunity unfortunately does decline — after five to 10 years — but it is believed vaccinated individuals still have some protection against fatal outcomes should an outbreak, in the very rare event, reappear.
Routine smallpox vaccination in the U.S. was stopped in 1972, after it was declared eradicated. The CDC only recommends the vaccine to lab workers who work with smallpox or smallpox-like viruses, and to those who need long-term protection like military personnel.
That's probably as good a summary I've seen in mainstream media. Which raises two questions:
Investing: one of the bigger stories I am watching this next year. COP. Link here.
Gasoline demand: US gasoline demand the week before Christmas, through Thursday, was up 5.5% from Thanksgiving week and the highest week of 2021.
Note: I'm a huge advocate of dispensing Ivermectin over-the-counter, like aspirin.
During my training, I read hundreds (thousands?) of research articles like this. The statistics: simply not impressed.
Study:
At the appropriate time this page will be moved over to the main blog.
Top story of the week:
Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story;
Top North Dakota energy:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
Operators:
Operations:
Wells:
Fracking:
Pipelines:
PDX on the Permian: not ready for prime time -- from a note I sent a reader earlier this morning.
This was a strange story this past weekend. A reader sent me a link to an article mostly about Sheffield's (PDX -- Pioneer Natural Resources / CEO) concern about the high price of oil. I didn't pay much attention. at the time but now oilprice is re-writing the story and I've taken an interest. I'm not sure why Sheffield is concerned. I guess his concern is that he wants to acquire more acreage and with oil price trending up he may be priced out, allowing majors like CVX, COP, MRO, OXY to take advantage. I don't know. Interestingly, Oasis CEO is now probably upset with his movement in, and then out, of the Permian. Link to Irina Slav here. I have not read the article closely but will come back to it.
TTE: the perfect energy transition play? Link to Alex Kimani. Alex Kimani is among a handful of writers about energy that I find credible. When he posts something, I pay attention. Summary;
I'm not following any of the EV companies from an investment point of view. I am not investing in any automobile company because of or in spite of their involvement with EVs. I am, however, investing in copper and semiconductors. No lithium yet and probably never. Decades ago I bought shares in Daimler and have accumulated more shares on a regular basis and am thrilled that I held all this time. LOL. The investment has been a lousy investment in the big scheme of things, but not as bad as some of my energy holdings, so ... .it is what it is. But with Daimler spinning off Daimler Truck as its own company, I am thrilled. This is going to be fascinating to watch.
Daimler, globally, is the #1 truck manufacturer, I believe. Needs to be fact-checked and probably doesn't include pickup trucks. See later: #1 in heavy-truck manufacturing worldwide.
From my perspective it "owns" the diesel market -- globally, not necessarily American market.
But Daimler is all in: switching to renewable energy, but interestingly is 50-50, electricity and hydrogen.
So, now we will see.
From The WSJ, over the weekend: Mercedes-Benz faces a bumpier road than Freightliner. Daimler spun out its heavy-truck business from its better-known car manufacturer, giving investors the choice which to own.
Mercedes-Benz (DMLRY) cars promise a thrilling ride, but investors may be safer in a Freightliner rig.
The long-awaited two-way split of German automotive giant Daimler completed Friday. It leaves shareholders with two stocks to ponder: a would-be Tesla peer in Mercedes-Benz and a restructuring story in Daimler Truck.
For all the attractions of the former’s luxury brand, the latter has a less risky path forward.
Daimler Truck, whose newly listed shares rose 5% in morning trading Friday, is by some distance the world’s largest heavy-truck manufacturer, but it has always played second fiddle to the consumer-focused car business within the group. For years, that allowed the truck and bus business to get away with poor performance. In the third quarter its adjusted return on sales—a metric equivalent to operating margin—was 5.5%, half that of listed peer Volvo Group. The split, announced by Chief Executive Ola Källenius in February, shines a brighter light on that underperformance.
Me? A no-brainer. A perfect opportunity to continue divesting crude oil and accumulating Freightliner, now known as Daimler Truck Group, shares of which are starting to populate brokerage statements, with a "spaceholder" for the US ticker symbol. Currently DTG is being sold on the Frankfurt Exchange and my broker will not make those trades for me. Rumors are the new ticker symbol, when DTG shares become available in US exchanges, will be DTRUY. I don't know. We'll see.
And note the new trading symbol for Daimler-Benz, DMLRY?
Rivian R1T review: The WSJ car reviewer is a very, very trusted, credible reviewer. He was told by Rivian to "thrash the car" and provide an honest review. He did. He was not impressed with the pickup. But Dan Neil says it was a prototype that he drove and Rivian says much more is yet to be done. The weight and payload will "kill" the enthusiasm for everyone but urban cowboys. Phil LeBeau is an urban cowboy, so he likes the truck. Of course he "likes" all vehicle manufacturers; that's how he keeps his contacts talking to him. Link to article here.
Comments: timeline --
Saudi Arabia:
Global warming:
AAPL:
COP: Michael Fitzsimmons over at SeekingAlpha. I agree with everything he says. Almost everyone replying says the same thing: buybacks are worthless for investors.
Geopolitics: Biden administration reportedly mulls "nuclear option," i.e., disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT payment system in case they invade Ukraine. Likely outcome:
Peak oil: recurrent them on the blog -- OPEC+ may be hitting oil production limits; more and more stories of same. today, from Energy Intelligence, Russia may be hitting oil production limits.
AAPL, again:
MSFT:
A bunch of hot air? Not really; also used to cool MRI scanners. Update on helium. Hottest commodity play of 2022? Link to Tom Kool. These stories surface every three-to-five years.
ConocoPhillips unveiled a $1 billion variable dividend as the second-largest driller in the Permian basin aims to boost investor returns in the new year.
The new quarterly dividend will be set based on forward oil prices, cash flow and other factors and could result in eight cash payouts every year beginning in January 2022, according to a statement Monday. It’s the latest effort by the company to raise shareholder return after posting the highest quarterly profit in a decade. ConocoPhillips has said it plans to hand out about $7 billion in total to investors in 2022, a 16% increase from 2021.
The company also said it will spend about $7.2 billion with shale operations counting for about 60% of that total. That’s up from about $5.3 billion this year. The spending boost comes just months after a pair of major acquisitions that made it the second-biggest oil driller in the country’s largest oil basin.
The recent purchases of Concho Resources Inc. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s Permian assets enabled ConocoPhillips to surpass Chevron Corp. as the Permian’s No. 2 crude producer, according to research firm Enverus. ConocoPhillips is keen to expand in shale at a time when it’s getting more difficult to win regulatory approval for a major Alaskan development that’s been held back by environmental challenges in the courts.
It's also interesting, and many folks forget, COP (BR) is one of the bigger operators in the Bakken.
Football:
James Bond: license to kill fun.
Nvidia: soaring chip demand eases "deal setback." Link here.
Russia's wheat exports: tumbling. And Bloomberg says Russia sets next export target at 9 million metric tons. Needs to be fact-checked.
Free cash flow. OMG. OXY. Link here.
CAPEX upstream and cost to find a new barrel of oil. Why is crude oil so cheap?
Natural gas: prices plummeting.
Above-average temperatures across the US for next two weeks: link here.
Shale oil: why share prices not responsive to higher oil and gas prices. SeekingAlpha. Same old stuff.
OPEC:
EU/UK energy crisis:
Port crisis continues. Update. Smoke and mirrors.
Investing:
Apple: ready to break out (again)? Financial Times.
Transitory inflation: supply chain woes.
Southern surge:
M3: Apple's chipmaking partner TSMC has kicked off pilot production chips built on its 3-nm process, known as N3. Previously posted. Link here.
Instant! AWS and the M1 Mac mini: link here. To better understand this jargon, read the social media comments at the linked story.
Amazon today announced that its Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2) service is now offering a "preview" of M1 Mac mini instances in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) regions of U.S. East and U.S. West, with other regions to be available when the instances are fully released.
An "instance" is a virtual server available for rent through Amazon's EC2 service for running apps on AWS infrastructure. Intel-based Mac mini instances were already available since last year, but M1 models will provide improved performance, allowing developers building apps for the iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and Apple TV to benefit from faster builds.
When we last checked in, INTC was struggling with 10-nm chips, by which time Apple had moved onto 5-nm chips and placed the M1 chips in new computers being released in 2021.
Now this:
Apple's chipmaking partner TSMC has kicked off pilot production of chips built on its 3nm process, known as N3,
From the linked article;
The report claims that TSMC will move the process to volume production by the fourth quarter of 2022 and start shipping 3nm chips to customers like Apple and Intel in the first quarter of 2023.
As usual, this process advancement should allow for performance and power efficiency improvements, which can lead to faster speeds and/or longer battery life on future iPhones and Macs. The first series of Apple silicon Macs powered by M1 chips already deliver industry-leading performance per watt while running impressively quiet and cool.
The first Apple devices with 3nm chips will likely debut in 2023, including iPhone 15 models with an A17 chip and Apple silicon Macs with M3 chips — all names are tentative. The Information's Wayne Ma last month reported that some of the M3 chips will have up to four dies, which the report said could translate into those chips having up to a 40-core CPU, compared to the 8-core M1 chip and 10-core M1 Pro and M1 Max chips.
In the meantime, Macs with M2 chips and iPhone 14 models are expected to use chips based on TSMC's N4 process, which is another iteration of its 5nm process.
As mentioned previously, Daimler Benz will start rolling out EV trucks starting January, 2021, aiming for eight trucks / day at one facility. Previously, this facility would roll out 20+ trucks / day. The EV production at this particular facility is only part of total production; it continues to produce diesel trucks.
Daimler Benz on the west coast has a huge penetration in Australia. Australia leads the way in autonomous truck use -- Mining Technology, August 23, 2021.
