Inflation Watch -- April 29, 2022

Every run to Target, I check the price of bacon. High, but not what I expected; I expected much worse. I don't buy bacon any more -- I suppose there are exceptions but I can't recall the last time I bought a package of bacon -- at least two months ago and one package seemed to last forever.

I get the feeling that Target is having trouble moving their bacon: always well-stocked and they place it in multiple refrigerator units throughout the grocery store as if they have too much; can't move it.

Other than bacon, however, Target, here in our neighborhood, north Texas, is having a huge logistics -- supply chain problem. Has "completely" run out of eggs. Has been that way for a month or so. The other stores note shortages in signage but always enough.

Asian products especially low at Target.

The nice thing: non-perishables? Anything Target doesn't have Amazon will deliver same day if I i put in the Amazon order by 10:00 a.m.

But bacon, not a problem. Except for the price, apparently.

Amazon's 1Q22 Earnings -- April 29, 2022

Link here. Be sure to read comments. 

Link to SeekingAlpha. Archived. Comment at the site:

This stock's poor performance has nothing to do with government stimulus checks or no government stimulus checks. This is about the end of the Pandemic, an overvalued American dollar, and what happens when you operate a delivery company and fuel prices skyrocket. Amazon is simply saying here that we are going to defend our market share we won in the last 2 years from the brick and competitors who are now getting back all their customers that Amazon stole or borrowed, depending on your point of view. If you are willing to look the other way on several more quarters of scorched earth pricing and profits, Amazon is for you as an investor. Amazon has the financial power to do this. However, most other Ecommerce companies do not. Many will fail in the next year or two.

Putin's War: So Much Equipment Has Been Lost .... April 27, 2022

From the Daily Mail.

Russia’s military has lost so much equipment in Ukraine it will be incapable of fighting another war for "years," analysts claim. 

Putin's failing war in Ukraine has seen Russia lose years' worth of kit, experts say. 

That includes

• 939 tanks;
• 185 planes;
• 155 helicopters; and,
• 421 artillery.

In addition, in Kyiv, Russian army supplies are getting low and "it will take years for Russia to rebuild."

US analyst Soviet-era reserves including tanks remain - but it's unclear if they still work. 

Embarrassing sinking of Black Sea flagship the Moskva prompted fury in Russia.

In addition, sanctions on Russia will severely limit technology needed to re-build their military.  

Personnel losses:

• 22,400, up from 22,100 day prior;

Number of Russian soldiers now estimated to seize and control entire country: one million. Number of soldiers at time of invasion: one-fourth of that, at 280,000.

Investing -- April 25, 2022

Link here. 

Link here.

Link here.

Saudi Storage -- April 24, 2022

Link here.

Ukranians Hit Russian Oil Depot -- April 24, 2022

Link here. Also here.

This is quite interesting. Many story lines, including the Ukrainians taking the war inside Russia. 

Be sure to follow the thread at the link. 

How Fauci Fooled American -- Martin Kulldorff And Jay Bhattacharya -- MSN -- November, 1, 2021

Over at MSN.com. 

When the pandemic hit, America needed someone to turn to for advice. The media and public naturally looked to Dr. Anthony Fauci—the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, an esteemed laboratory immunologist and one of President Donald Trump's chosen COVID advisers. Unfortunately, Dr. Fauci got major epidemiology and public health questions wrong. Reality and scientific studies have now caught up with him.

Here are the key issues:

Natural immunity. By pushing vaccine mandates, Dr. Fauci ignores naturally acquired immunity among the COVID-recovered, of which there are more than 45 million in the United States. Mounting evidence indicates that natural immunity is stronger and longer lasting than vaccine-induced immunity. In a study from Israel, the vaccinated were 27 times more likely to get symptomatic COVID than the unvaccinated who had recovered from a prior infection.

We have known about natural immunity from disease at least since the Athenian Plague in 430 BC. Pilots, truckers and longshoremen know about it, and nurses know it better than anyone. Under Fauci's mandates, hospitals are firing heroic nurses who recovered from COVID they contracted while caring for patients. With their superior immunity, they can safely care for the oldest and frailest patients with even lower transmission risk than the vaccinated.

Protecting the elderly. While anyone can get infected, there is more than a thousand-fold difference in mortality risk between the old and the young. After more than 700,000 reported COVID deaths in America, we now know that lockdowns failed to protect high-risk older people. When confronted with the idea of focused protection of the vulnerable, Dr. Fauci admitted he had no idea how to accomplish it, arguing that it would be impossible. That may be understandable for a lab scientist, but public health scientists have presented many concrete suggestions that would have helped, had Fauci and other officials not ignored them.

What can we do now to minimize COVID mortality? Current vaccination efforts should focus on reaching people over 60 who are neither COVID-recovered nor vaccinated, including hard-to-reach, less-affluent people in rural areas and inner cities. Instead, Dr. Fauci has pushed vaccine mandates for children, students and working-age adults who are already immune—all low-risk populations—causing tremendous disruption to labor markets and hampering the operation of many hospitals.

School closures. Schools are major transmission points for influenza, but not for COVID. While children do get infected, their risk for COVID death is minuscule, lower than their already low risk of dying from the flu. Throughout the 2020 spring wave, Sweden kept daycare and schools open for all its 1.8 million children ages 1 to 15, with no masks, testing or social distancing. The result? Zero COVID deaths among children and a COVID risk to teachers lower than the average of other professions. In fall 2020, most European countries followed suit, with similar results. Considering the devastating effects of school closures on children, Dr. Fauci's advocacy for school closures may be the single biggest mistake of his career.

Masks. The gold standard of medical research is randomized trials, and there have now been two on COVID masks for adults. For children, there is no solid scientific evidence that masks work. A Danish study found no statistically significant difference between masking and not masking when it came to coronavirus infection. In a study in Bangladesh, the 95 percent confidence interval showed that masks reduced transmission between 0 percent and 18 percent. Hence, masks are either of zero or limited benefit. There are many more critical pandemic measures that Dr. Fauci could have emphasized, such as better ventilation in schools and hiring nursing home staff with natural immunity.

Contact tracing. For some infectious diseases, such as Ebola and syphilis, contact tracing is critically important. For a commonly circulating viral infection such as COVID, it was a hopeless waste of valuable public health resources that did not stop the disease.

Collateral public health damage. A fundamental public health principle is that health is multidimensional; the control of a single infectious disease is not synonymous with health. As an immunologist, Dr. Fauci failed to properly consider and weigh the disastrous effects lockdowns would have on cancer detection and treatment, cardiovascular disease outcomes, diabetes care, childhood vaccination rates, mental health and opioid overdoses, to name a few. Americans will live with—and die from—this collateral damage for many years to come.

In private conversations, most of our scientific colleagues agree with us on these points. While a few have spoken up, why are not more doing so? Well, some tried but failed. Others kept silent when they saw colleagues slandered and smeared in the media or censored by Big Tech. Some are government employees who are barred from contradicting official policy. Many are afraid of losing positions or research grants, aware that Dr. Fauci sits on top of the largest pile of infectious disease research money in the world. Most scientists are not experts on infectious disease outbreaks. Were we, say, oncologists, physicists or botanists, we would probably also have trusted Dr. Fauci.

The evidence is in. Governors, journalists, scientists, university presidents, hospital administrators and business leaders can continue to follow Dr. Anthony Fauci or open their eyes. After 700,000-plus COVID deaths and the devastating effects of lockdowns, it is time to return to basic principles of public health.

 

The Judge Who Ended The Mask Mandate -- April 19, 2022

https://www.thedailybeast.com/cdc-mask-rules-junked-by-judge-kathryn-kimball-mizelle-in-floridatrumps-worst-judge?source=twitter&via=desktop

Grocery Inflation Watch -- 2022

Locator: 10001INFL.

May 10, 2023:

• eggs: $2.59 (Target) -- twenty cents less expensive than a year ago;
• white bread: $1.89 -- vs $1.19 exactly one year ago -- obviously grocers are trying to taking advantage of "inflation"; there's no way white bread should increase from $1.19 to $1.89 in one year if CPI figures out today show 4.9% increase y/y
• diet Coke, 2-liter bottle: $2.79 -- about the same; possibly twenty cents less expensive;
  

February 28, 2023: Wow, wow, wow -- eggs!

Eggs:

• had been running at $5.59 for the past several weeks (months);
• today, at Target: $3.29 for a dozen white eggs
• wow
• on February 23, 2023, an article in The WSJ predicted this (LOL)

Eggs:

• by the way, speaking of eggs, from 2015:

McCormick crushed red pepper, for pizza:

• $6.15 for a huge bottle, 3x their normal size, 1.5 oz
• store brand: 1.5 oz for $1.19 (or $3.58 vs $6.15)

Soft drinks, 2-liter:

• my favorite drink at McDonald's: Diet Dr Pepper
• at home, Diet Coke
• makes no sense? Don't ask, I don't know.
• Diet Coke: $2.99 at Market Street;
• Diet Coke: $2.59 at Target
• Diet Dr Pepper: $2.19 at Target
• from now on, Diet Dr Pepper at home; 
• $2.99 vs $2.19 per 2-liter bottle; that's almost a dollar/bottle savings
  

Bread:

• brand name $3.99 or more
• white, no-name bread: $1.49

Canola oil:

• Crisco: $5.29 for one of those 48-oz bottles
• store brand, same size: $3.89

Frozen turkey: Walmart

• 98 cents / lb

Alcohol (at Total Wine and More -- I didn't buy either -- just noting)

• scotch: the price I would pay if I bought scotch: $35 -- it's rare for me to buy scotch any more; too expensive
  
• Texas vodka (Tower): normally $12.99 for typical size bottle; $5 off; now $7.99 -- I don't drink vodka either with very rare exceptions

*********************************
December, 2022, and Before

December 6, 2022: for the longest time, at least six months, it seems, Coca-Cola in two-liter bottles, all varieties had been priced at $2.59 at Target and $2.58. 

All of a sudden, last week, two-liter bottles of Coke were priced at $1.59 and $1.58. Amazing. Just out of the blue. Then today, again out of the blue, we found two-liter bottles of Coca-Cola priced at three bottles for $5.00! That's $1.67. So, not quite as good as $1.58 but this was at one of the high end stores in our neighborhood.

October 23, 2022:

• Oatmeal, box of individual packets, Maple Sugar; 20 packets in a box
• Quaker Oats brand: $6.48 (Walmart)
• generic (GG): $3.48
• at 20 in a box, that works out to 16 cents / packet
• Starbucks: $3.58 / serving -- to add water and heat in microwave
  

September 5, 2022:

• orange juice: prices finally rose; Simply Orange went first and Tropicana followed; from $3.99 to around $4.19; Tropicana on sale for $3.50;
  
• eggs are volatile; around $3.49 but has come down as low as $3.19 at Target; more expensive at regional grocer
• bacon: already cooked, standard 10-slices: $3.69
• shrimp, frozen: smallest size bag -- $8.99
• pickles, kosher, dill, medium size bottle: $2.59
• at Albertson's I refused to buy small package of Kraft caramels for $3.29
• potato chips are every, very expensive; refuse to buy
  

August 30, 2022:

• Braunschweiger, standard size, John Morell, Albertson's: $3.49
• iceberg lettuce, head, Albertson's: $1.59

August 28, 2022:

• my favorite brand orange juice finally went from $3.99 to $4.19 after at least a year of no change in price;
• Tropicana maintained orange juice price at $3.99
• Candy: Hot Tamales could easily be found for 99 cents in the past; at Target: $1.29
• Spam: $3.79; standard size, regular
• Pearl Milling Syrup: $3.39, regular size
• pickles, Mt Olive, $2.59

August 16, 2022: a dozen eggs back to $3.39 at Target.

July 21, 2022: 

Tuna at 85 cents a can -- I've never seen it this low -- at least not in the last two or three years.

Eight Bar-S hot dogs: they were 99 cents last week, now up to a $1.29 but that compares with all other hot dogs at $5.99 for a package of eight.

And finally, I bought the salad expecting to pay $3.99, but found that it was on sale for $2.49.

This "food inflation" story is a bit overblown. 

By the way, eggs are now easily found; no longer any shortage. Target has a dozen for $2.29 and I'm sure they will get less expensive over the next few months.

The bacon, lettuce, and tomato sandwich I'm going to have in a few minutes will cost about fifty cents.

July 14, 2022: a reader noted that the producer price index gained 11.3% in June, 2022. My reply:

• I find this whole thing very, very interesting.
• My hunch: a lot of companies are taking advantage of this "inflation."
• BEER: 
• I've been paying attention to prices for beer for past three years -- I am amazed that beer is not appreciating in price here in Texas.
• incredibly competitive, it appears. Never any shortage.
• Potato chips:
• I seldom buy potato chips but I never buy brand-name unless on sale. I find no difference between store-brand and brand name (in fact, our local store brand is better than brand name chips). 
• Brand name chips running about $4.50 for a regular-size bag of chips; store brand chips about $2.29.
• Hot dogs:
• I buy 8-pack of brand-name for 99 cents. Ninety-nine cents, and yet most other hot dogs run $4 to $5 for 8-pack.
• Tuna:
• store band: $1.19 vs $2+ for brand name
• I can tell absolutely no difference
• Orange juice:
• hasn't gone up in price in ages; $3.99 for brand-name for usual size
• Eggs:
• no longer any shortage
• shelves overflowing with eggs
• had been as high as $4 for a dozen during a shortage, now most expensive is $2.29 at Target -- I bet I can find it less expensive elsewhere.
• Beef: 
• I don't buy meat any more except hot dogs and summer sausage. Can make summer sausage last a long time with thin slices.
  
• Spam: 
• has gotten more expensive but I can also "stretch it."
• For me, food inflation is not a problem.
• I would hate to be a young parent with high-school teenagers playing football.

June 17, 2022: favorite IPA, 6-pack, bottles:

• at Target: price has not increased for at least two years —
• regular price: $9.99
• on sale, this week: $8.99
• Big Box store, regional: regular price: $7.99

June 4, 2022: Target run --

• still no baby formula on the shelves
• eggs are in pretty goods supply (easily meets demand); and now back to $2.69 / dozen
• Tropicana orange juice on sale at 2 / $7 ($3.50 apiece) vs competitor's $3.99
  

May 12, 2022: Target run --

• eggs are back! Plenty of eggs at both Target and Albertson's
• Target: $3.19 for a dozen
• Albertson's: $2.79 for a dozen

May 8, 2022: Target run --

• eggs, oh, dear: I used to be able to get "store-brand" eggs for $1.29 / dozen;
• then, during the shortage leading up to Easter: $2.29, when they were even available
• tonight: same "store-brand" eggs: $3.29 / dozen
• hot dogs:
• brand name regular hotdogs: 8-pack for $0.99. Mis-priced? I don't know but that was what they were marked;
• National Hebrew: $4.99 for five- or six-pack, the standard National Hebrew pack for $4.99

May 2, 2022: beer seems to be "holding, staying steady." Inflation not affecting beer to extent one would think. A six-pack of brand name craft beer everywhere at $9.99 and some places, some brands, $8.99. 

April 29, 2022: Target -- bacon and logistics / supply chain issues. 

April 22, 2022: Target --

• out of eggs; a few cartons left, but essentially out of eggs;
• silver lining:
• with smaller packages, increased prices, I'm eating less, losing more (weight)
• since I bicycle whenever I grocery shop, I can now carry more items, because each is less in size;

April 18, 2022: Target --

• eggs: unchanged in price; best price, $2.29 / dozen;
• inventory continues to drop, though plenty
• Pillsbury refrigerated cinnamon
• rolls: inventory very, very low
  

April 16, 2022, Target / Albertson's run:

• soy sauce:
• Target: completely out of Kikkoman; only three bottles of store brand left;
• Albertson's: lots of Kikkoman; plenty of store brand
• Bundeberg ginger beer diet:
• Target: doesn't carry
• Albertson's: lots
• eggs: no change
• Target: moderate inventory left; $2.29 / dozen
• Albertson's: mdoerate inventory; limiting sales to one dozen / customer / visit; $2.89 / dozen;

April 15, 2022, Target / Albertson's run:

• eggs: no change. Prices unchanged; Target still beats Albertson's, $2.79  vs $2.29 for a dozen
• plenty of eggs available at both places, but clearly inventories are way down
• soy sauce: 
• not on Kikkoman bottle of soy sauce available at Target; out of curiosity need to check Albertson's
• store brand soy sauce available in very, very limited supplies -- down to about four bottles;

• Kikkoman: $3.49
• store brand: $1.69
• no brainer, even if Kikkoman had been available.

• salad dressing, Honey Mustard
• brand name: $3.89
• store brand: $1.59
• no-brainer which one to get
  

April 14, 2022, Target / Albertson's run:

• Albertson's:
• white bread, $1.19 on sale for 99 cents a loaf;
• eggs at Albertson's: shortage due to avian flu; best I could find, $3.89. Target, best, $3.29;
• plenty of eggs at Albertson's but not "overflowing"
  
• six pack crafts beer, new Belgium Voodoo Ranger:
• Albertson's: $11.99
• Target: $9.99 and second one 25% off;
• sushi:
• Target; not made on site; very expensive
• Albertson's: made on site; no price increase; my usual: $12.49
• prices overall: about the same between Target and Albertson's

April 13, 2022, Target run:

Eggs remain very expensive due to avian flu outbreak. I can usually meet all my egg needs at $1.19 / dozen at Target. Now, the best I can do is $2.39, and Target is dangerously close to running out.

April 13, 2022, Target run:

I made my daily / almost daily run to Target.

Sophia likes chocolate croissants for a snack before gymnastics.

We used to get six "large" chocolate croissants for $3.99; now there are only four in the box.

So, I get them less often and I don't have any. Sophia gets them all. Overall, not spending any more on croissants than I used to but yes, huge increase in cost.

Today, they did not have the croissants; they are often sold out. I bought the alternative, six small croissants for $2.99.

Sophia will have two of them, perhaps three of them. She likes them just as much -- they're "cuter" so I think she prefers them.

At Starbucks a single chocolate croissant, identical to the four for $3.99 chocolate croissants at Target, costs $3.25 before tax; after tax, $3.52. So instead of $3.99 for four at Target, I would be paying $14.08 for four at Starbucks.

The worse inflation gets, the more I save. LOL.

April 13, 2022:

• K-cups, Amazon, per cup, as low as 25 cents/cup; as high as 75 cents/cup:
• Amazon brand, Solimo dark roast: 31 cents
• Amazon brand, Hazel nut, 25 cents
• Variety pack: 35 cents
• Dunkin' Donut: 34 cents
• McCafe: 40 cents
• Peet's: 51 cents

Starbucks, screen shot from my iPhone:

USPS: first class stamps, one-ounce Forever stamps;

• 58 cents / stamp
  
• number of Forever stamps I will use today: zero

Bacon:

• Walmart, $3.73 / 12-oz package
• approx 12 slices per package
• one slice / breakfast: 31 cents
  
• number of bacon servings I have had in the past month: zero 

Gasoline:

April 12, 2022:

• did not buy eggs, but egg supply getting very, very low at Target
• white bread, discount: $1.19 / loaf
• Pillsbury cinnamon rolls: $$2.59 / 8 roll cylinder
• Russet potato: 59 cents / pound

April 11, 2022:

• frozen chicken strips, store brand, Target, 25 ozs ( lb 9 ounces): $6.99
• Russet potato: 75 cents / pound
  

The MAGA Cap Has Been Found -- April 3, 2022

A few years back a friend sent me a Trump red "Make America Great Again" cap. It could not have been a better gift. $12.99 plus mailing costs that probably exceeded the cost of the cap. 

But my wife hated it. She detests Trump (welcome to my world). When I wasn't looking, she grabbed the hat and "disposed" of it. For two years, I never asked about it, never thought it would ever be found.

Yesterday, while doing some decluttering, I came across a shopping bag filled with all those name-brand shopping bags that we all collect for some reason. I decided to throw them all out, but before doing so, I checked for anything that might be inside any of the bags.

And, lo and behold, there is a God with a sense of humor. Inside one of the bags was the perfectly preserved MAGA red cap. Glory be!

So, the photo taken on the porch, April 2, 2022.

We won't lose it this time!