Semi-Conductors -- Micron -- Reports Huge Loss -- 2Q23

Link here.

The Flat Earth Society — March 17, 2023

I watched The Louis Pasteur Story, a 1936 movie, on TCM today. 

1870s. 

The Covid-19 pandemic reminded me that 50% of Americans are still living in the “Dark Ages” when it comes to vaccines, wearing masks, and, washing hands. Fifty percent of Americans would be anti-Pasteur, anti-Lister, if experience with Covid-19 was any indication.

Intel Delays Products -- March 15, 2023

Updates

May 25, 2023: update.

Original Post

Recent, google: intel major product delay falcon shores gpu --

Back in 2020: 7-nm delay; 

iPhone debacle: social media.

Bakken Yields Clues To One Of Earth's Deadliest Mass Extinctions -- PHYS/ORG -- March 13, 2023

Link here.

The Bakken Shale Formation—a 200,000-square-mile shale deposit below parts of Canada and North Dakota—has supplied billions of barrels of oil and natural gas to North America for 70 years. A new discovery reveals that the rocks also open a uniquely informative window into Earth's complicated geological history.

A research team, which included geologists from the University of Maryland, George Mason University and the Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor, developed a new framework for analyzing paleontological and biogeochemical data extracted from the formation's rock.

Using this technique, the team pinpointed a major trigger of several closely spaced biotic crises during the late Devonian Period almost 350 million years ago: euxinia, or the depletion of oxygen and expansion of hydrogen sulfide in large bodies of water. Published in the journal Nature on March 8, 2023, the team's findings demonstrate links between sea level, climate, ocean chemistry and biotic disruption.

"For the first time, we can point to a specific kill mechanism responsible for a series of significant biotic disruptions during the late Devonian Period," said UMD Geology Professor Alan Jay Kaufman, a senior author of the paper. "There have been other mass extinctions presumably caused by expansions of hydrogen sulfide before, but no one has ever studied the effects of this kill mechanism so thoroughly during such a critical period of Earth's history."

According to Kaufman, the late Devonian Period was a "perfect storm" of factors that played a large role in how Earth is today. Vascular plants and trees were especially crucial to the process; as they expanded on land, plants stabilized soil structure, helped spread nutrients to the ocean, and added oxygen and water vapor to the atmosphere while pulling carbon dioxide out of it.

"The introduction of terrestrial plants capable of photosynthesis and transpiration stimulated the hydrological cycle, which kick-started the Earth's capacity for more complex life as we know it today," Kaufman said.

The Devonian Period ended around the same time the Bakken sediments accumulated, allowing the layers of organic-rich shale to 'record' the environmental conditions that occurred there. Because the Earth's continents were flooded during that time, various sediments including black shale gradually accumulated in inland seas that formed within geological depressions like the Williston Basin, the preserved the Bakken formation. 

Much more at the link. 

Aramco's Spending Mystery -- Bloomberg -- March 13, 2023

After posting a record profit for 2022, Saudi Aramco says it will boost capital investment by as much as 45% this year. But it has yet to answer the question of how much, if any, of that increase will go toward lifting the country’s oil-production capacity, even as it warns of the risks of underinvestment globally.

The company reiterated plans to boost domestic production capacity to 13 million barrels a day by 2027, but that’s a long-held target and the projects to achieve it are well underway. They’re due to start contributing more volumes next year, with the biggest increments set to come in 2025 and 2026. But there’s no sign yet that Aramco’s looking beyond that goal.

Indeed, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in July that, beyond that, the kingdom “will not have any additional capacity to increase production.” But it's far from clear that's a geological limit.

With access to massive and (relatively) easy-to-exploit oil reserves in Saudi Arabia, Aramco has a huge advantage over other producers. While the world may hold more proven oil reserves than are needed as it transitions away from fossil fuels, much of that crude is unattractive or off-limits to investors.

The vast deposits of Venezuela’s Orinoco basin or Canada’s oil sands, which make them the world’s first- and third-biggest oil reserves holders, respectively, are much more expensive and carbon-intensive to produce than the oil lying beneath Saudi Arabia’s deserts or the shallow waters of the Persian Gulf. They also require a lot more processing once they reach the surface to turn them into usable products.

The next three biggest reserves holders — Iraq, Iran and Russia — are hobbled by politics. Only Iraq is potentially open for business with Western oil companies, and it has seen more overseas oil investors leave than arrive in recent years. For the other two, maintaining current production levels in the face of international sanctions may be their key challenges.

The future of global oil demand is uncertain, but OPEC sees it rising to about 110 million barrels a day, a near 10% increase, by 2035. It’s not clear that Aramco worries enough about underinvestment in oil production to boost its own capacity beyond current plans.

--Julian Lee, Bloomberg Oil Strategist

Bank Failures

 Link here.

Apple's Most Recent Purchase -- March 10, 2023

Link here. 

EVs -- Lordstown, GM -- March 10, 2023

GM: offers buyout to "majority" of US salaried workers. Link here.

Lordstown Endurance: link here, no date when this story was published.
starts at $65,000

Europe Set To Raise LNG Imports As Regasification Capacity Jumps -- March 10, 2023

By Charles Kennedy, so you know it's a great article. 

Link here.

The EU will soon have 35 LNG regasification terminals, up from 27 currently, and the regasification capacity is set to increase to 227 bcm from 178 bcm, Sefcovic tweeted today after holding what he described as a "productive" virtual meeting with international gas suppliers. The EU is getting ready for more LNG by reinforcing its import capacity infrastructure, Sefcovic said.

Europe's biggest economy, Germany, plans to have as much as 70.7 million tons per year of LNG import capacity by 2030, which will make it the fourth-largest LNG import capacity holder in the world, Argus reported last month, citing plans by the German economy ministry and RWE.

Germany may end up using less LNG import capacity than it has planned to roll out this decade, but better safe than sorry, the chief executive of the top German utility, RWE, said in an interview with German business magazines Der Stern and Capital. .However, the race to ensure supply for next winter hasn't even started in earnest yet. Prices are set to hold higher than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine through the summer as Europe will face stiffer competition from Asia for LNG supply.

The 21st century: America's century.

From "Outfront" To Obscurity -- March 10, 2023

Does anyone know what happened to Erin Burnett? 

I thought she was one of the better presenters on CNBC -- especially playing off Jim Cramer.

Then she went over to CNN to have her own show, Upfront With Erin Burnett.

She disappeared. 

I had a miserable time finding anything on Ms Burneett and absolutely nothing about her ratings.

Only these links:

CBS News, October 27, 2011: 

Erin Burnett's troubled new show on CNN got just 67,000 viewers aged 25-54 on Oct. 25, an all time low. "OutFront" only debuted on October 3, 2011. (She got 352,000 viewers overall, or about one fifth of the audience for Fox News' Shepard Smith.)

It's a staggering collapse. Before she joined CNN, Burnett was a sterling media brand (she reportedly earns $750,000 to $2 million a year). Now she seems to be in flame-out mode. Here's how it happened, and how Burnett and CNN could dig themselves out of the hole they're in.

Forbes, February 28, 2023:

February marked CNN’s lowest-rated month in a decade, with the network’s prime time lineup dropping 42% among viewers 25-54—the key demographic group valued by advertisers—compared to the same month one year ago. CNN drew an average prime time audience of 122,000 viewers in the key demo, compared to Fox News Channel’s 299,000 viewers (down 33%). MSNBC was third overall with 119,000 viewers (down 15%).

Among total viewers, Fox News dominated prime time with 2.262 million viewers, followed by MSNBC (1.165 million viewers) and CNN (587,000 viewers). All of the networks saw year-over-year declines, with CNN down the most at 24%. Fox News was down 14% and MSNBC declined the least, down 2%.

Fox News had 94 of the 100 most-watched telecasts in February, which marked two consecutive years as the highest-rated network in cable news, among both total viewers and viewers in the key demo.

"TVNewser," adweek.com: ratings, ranked by network.

EVs -- The Make Or Break Year

Most recent update, March 8, 2023. 

• Market yesterday, one day after JPow's congressional testimony;
  
• Lordstown (RIDE): down another 7.25% today. Closed at 84 cents.
  
• Nikola: down 7.22%. Closed at $1.80.
  
• ARVL: down 4.5%. Closed at 21 cents.
  
• LCID: down 4%. Closed at $8.00.
  
• RIVN: down 4%.  Closed at $14.53.
  
• FSR: down 6.7%. Closed at $6.56.
  
• F: down 4%. Closed at $12.45.

Today, the day SBV crashed: 

• Lordstown (RIDE): down another 2% today. Trading at 82 cents.
  
• Nikola: down 2%. Trading at $1.77.
  
• ARVL: up 1.5%. Trading at 21 cents.
  
• LCID: down 0.25%. Trading at $8.00.
  
• RIVN: up 0.85%.  Trading at $14.67.
  
• FSR: down 46%. Trading at $6.53.
  
• F: down 3%. Trading at $12.09.

Chips -- March 10, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Wiki transistor count here.

Backstory:

Yahoo!Finance: Bloomberg) -- With the most sell ratings in the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index, Intel Corp. is running ever lower on fans. Things have gotten so bad that even analysts brave enough to recommend buying are striking a cautious tone.

One of those, Srini Pajjuri at Raymond James, reasons that the chip designer’s “many problems” are unlikely to get much worse in the near term.

“We believe that the 2023 bar is low enough and expect the company to benefit from cyclical tailwinds and aggressive cost cuts,” Pajjuri wrote in a note last week, resuming coverage with an outperform recommendation.

(Bloomberg) -- With the most sell ratings in the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index, Intel Corp. is running ever lower on fans. Things have gotten so bad that even analysts brave enough to recommend buying are striking a cautious tone.

Another advocate, Gus Richard at Northland Securities, is sticking to his outperform rating, even after saying that buying the stock in the wake of January’s ugly earnings report would likely make investors “physically ill.”

The root of Intel’s woes stems from ceding its leadership position in the crucial area of manufacturing technology to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. Those companies provide outsourced production to Intel’s competitors such as Advanced Micro Devices Inc., allowing rivals to field better products and grab market share. 

And it only gets worse from there.

Wiki count: updated.

Sapphire Rapids: too little, too late?

• competes with AMD's EPYC Genoa

Sapphire Rapids has been a long-standing Intel project in development for over five years and has been subjected to many delays.

Sapphire Rapids was first announced by Intel at their Investor Meeting in May 2019 with the intention of Sapphire Rapids succeeding Ice Lake in 2021.

Intel again announced details on Sapphire Rapids in their August 2021 Architecture Day presentation with no mention of a launch date.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger tacitly blamed the previous Intel leadership as a reason for Sapphire Rapid's many delays.

One industry analyst firm claimed that Intel was having problems with yields from its Intel 7 node with yields of 50–60% on higher core-count silicon.

Sapphire Rapids was originally scheduled for a launch in the first half of 2022. It was later scheduled for release in Q4 2022 but was again delayed to early 2023. The specific announcement date of January 10, 2023, was not revealed by Intel until November 2022.

Google: sapphire rapids intc

*******************************
Semiconductors on a Chip

INTC: too little, too late?

Wiki: chips. Tracked here.

New: 

March 10, 2023: INTC -- too little, too late?

Previous:

January 19, 2023: is anyone paying attention?

Run On Banks -- March 10, 2023 -- IN PROGRESS

JPow's two big problems.  a run on banks and the implosion of cryptocurrency. 

SIVB: link here.

• Pre-market: down another 44%. Could open under $60.  [Later: could open under $35. Some feel that SIVB is NOT a one-off.]
  
• Culprit: Treasuries. 
• Five days, from $275 to $106.

  SIVB: wiki -- 

  On 9 March 2023, shares of SVB Financial plunged more than 62% after the company proposed a share sale to shore up its balance sheet which had suffered a $1.8 billion loss on Treasuries due to rising inflation.

•  Cryptocurrency: pending.

• JPow's third big problem. Credibility. 

He's publicly committed to 2% inflation rate. "Everyone" knows that is impossible and in a modern economy like the US, a 2% inflation rate is fantasy and, in fact, is actually detrimental to the well-being of the nation and the working class. A two-percent inflation rate could be seen by some as a personal blood feud for JPow and that he might be willing to take the nation down if he has to, to get to 2%. It will be interesting to see if JPow will moderate his statements at risk of "negative" headlines  on "flip-flopping."

 

The Stories -- March 10, 2023 -- In Progress

High on my list for today:

• Whatever happened to Erin Burnett? The cable ratings.
• Chips: updating the semiconductors.
• JPow's two big problems.  a run on banks and the implosion of cryptocurrency.
• JPow's third big problem.
  
• AAPL and what it will buy next?
• Lego.
• EVs.
• LNG. 
• Copper.
  

Comments on the above.

• Huge fail. Erin's move to obscurity.
• Wiki has new numbers for chips. 
• CNBC starting to sound frantic. Government talking heads are telling us to stay calm. Never a good combination.
• Credibility.
  
• No one knows.
• Folks have a lot of money to spend on plastic bricks.
• More and more it looks like 2023 is the "make or break year" for EV manufacturers. Rivian may be the biggest surprise.
• The 21st century: America's century. 
• The numbers are simply surprising.

******************************
Backstory

Erin's move to obscurity.

Chips.

Classic run on a bank. Don't think otherwise.

• banks
• cryptocurrency
• credibility

Apple.

Lego.

EVs. Make or break.

Germany LNG.

Copper.

Feeling Pretty Good Today -- March 3, 2023

All month:

• sanctions not working;
• Russia selling all the oil it can produce;
• Russia self-insuring its tanker fleet to get around sanctions;
• India buying Russian oil -- Russia oil is now India's #1 source;
• Russia selling oil at far higher price than "cap" allowed by sanctions / EU;
• Russia will cut production by 500,000 bopd in March because it simply doesn't need all that revenue;
• yeah, those were the headlines readers linked me throughout the past month;
• today: 

All month:

• this is all I heard all month; even to the point I said, "it gets tedious."

• I haven't looked at my portfolio today but based on what I see on the CNBC crawler this will be the best day I've ever had since I began investing in 1984;
• I am fully invested; I am always fully invested; cash? Don't have any; it's parked in ATT;
• seriously; I park all cash I get, no matter how little into ATT, buying and selling ATT, using it like a checking account
• my "40-30-20-5-5" new money allotment: big cap (e.g. DE, UNP) - semis (AAPL, TSM, AMD, AVGO) - oil (DVN, CVX, CHRD, EOG, HES) - mRNA (Big Pharma) - Daimler
• I've never seen a crawler like the one I'm seeing today
• worst sector right now: utilities. SRE, one of my biggest holdings, only utility: up 1% today
• SRE for me is like KO for others; I haven't bought any new SRE in years, but dividends are such I can't "afford" to sell and its cost basis -- probably trending toward $0. 
  

So, this will be up for 30 minutes, then taken down.

The above is a snapshot in time.

Next week, the perfect storm may hit and I may be homeless, but today I'm feeling pretty good.

The CNBC "Fast Money" folks yesterday said they couldn't understand this market, why it was doing so well. I wonder what they will say today. Unfortunately I will miss the show today -- I will be with Sophia (Jiu-Jitsu competition today) and Olivia (high school soccer).

Has FoxNews.Com Jumped The Shark? But We'll Never Quit Watching -- March 2, 2023

When I was a kid, and the daily Willliston Herald arrived on our doorstep, I tried to grab it first and when I did, the first section to which I turned was the comic section.

Things have not changed much.

Now, every day, the first news "station" to which I turn is FoxNews.com -- not for "news" content, but to see how "nuts" their reporting can be.

Yesterday may have been the "high-water mark" for comedic reporting.

With all that's going on -- Putin threatening nukes in Ukraine; recession in the US; earthquakes in Turkey --- what is the headline story over at FoxNews.com?

Right here, right at the top -- a story on FoxNewsNation aghast at what the Bidens did when they went out to eat the other night.

Oh, good, eighteen hours later it's still there. See below, lower right; "Never Heard Of It."

What did they do?

Clickbait.

It speaks volumes when I read that Fox News is beating all other internet news outlets by a wide margin.
FoxNews.com as an adult::the comic section when I was a teenager.

Bat Research, Stem Cells, And Viruses -- Science -- March 1, 2023

Link here.

 

The Havana Syndrome -- One Year Later -- March 1, 2023

A reader asked me my thoughts on this article: Havana Syndrome investigation.

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply:

1. I was aware of the story from a year ago, or whenever it was, but only read the headlines and maybe a paragraph or two. I never paid any attention to the story.

2. From the article: "In a statement, CIA Director William J. Burns said analysts had conducted “one of the largest and most intensive investigations in the Agency’s history. I and my leadership team stand firmly behind the work conducted and the findings.”

3. "One of the largest and most intensive investigations...." [I assume this would include the Kennedy assassination) and all they could come up with is "highly unlikely." If folks recall, the CIA was the prime investigator in the JFK assassination investigation.

4. Again, no analysis: how many cases; how are those folks doing now; what was the final medical or psychiatric diagnosis in every case (percentages are fine)? how many patients had objective, reproducible abnormal studies (CT scans, MRIs, nerve transmission studies, etc) how many folks were discharged from military duty with full disability pay (which is 100% tax-free);

5. Besides a working diagnosis of "Havana syndrome" what other maladies were considered?

6. Once identified, why did the cases seem to stop all of a sudden? What embassies (other locations) were affected and are they still operating? Operating with any new protections?

7. But again, "highly unlikely" --- that was their bottom line.

8. Same with the DOE / Covid / China / lab escape story earlier this week: only one of six (?) Cabinet-level government agencies suggested it could have been due to escape from a laboratory and that assessment was of "low confidence."

9. So, in my mind, both reports carry the same weight. It's how the media chooses to interpret the 1000-page documents that I doubt will ever be read in full.

10. But, still, an investigation as big as the JFK assassination investigation and they come with "highly unlikely."