My not-ready-for-primetime reply to a reader who sent me the story about auto sales increasing year-over-year:
As an investor, it's always about a) volume; and, b) margins. If you sell 4% more vehicles y/y but your margins decrease significantly, one's profit (all else being equal) will fall y/y.So, the question is this: "did Ford have to do more discounting in 2024 to increase sales?"And the answer is, according to google AI:Also, need to compare with overall market. Earlier from the blog:All numbers need to be fact-checked, but in very general and in some cases, very round numbers, number of vehicles sold in the US by these manufacturers, 2023:
- Toyota: about 2.8 million vehicles
- GM: about 2.6 million vehicles (an increase of 14% y/y)
- Honda + Nissan: about 2.2 million vehicles [Honda, 1.3 million; Nissan, 0.9 million]
- Honda: an increase of 33% y/y
- Nissan: an increase of 23% y/y
- Ford: 1.9 million vehicles (an increase of 7.9%)
- Hyundai Kia: 1.65 million vehicles
That was 2023. But two data points stand out.33% increase y/y/ for Honda; 8% increase y/y for Ford.And if y/y (2023/2022 was 8%) and then this y/y (2024/2023 was 4% ....
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The big story, of course, the EV is dead in the US and its prospects don't look better with Trump in the White House. As Dan Rather would say the future of EVs in the US is slim, slim just left town.
Ford (F) is still paying an incredible dividend. And it certainly appears that the dividend is propping up the share price: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/f/dividend-history.
P/E: 11.
Market cap: $40 billion.
