Before I post the next three graphics, has ABC Nightly News reported the Australian Covid-19 situation in Australia any evening this past month? I don't think so.
But ABC Nightly News did have enough interest to report the brush / forest fires that threatened the marsupials in Australia in 2019.
The graphics:
Wow, wow, wow, things are moving very, very quickly.
The virus / infection story itself is running very, very quickly, and this whole thing, medically and scientifically is going to come to an end very quickly.
Politically, administratively, whatever one calls it, may drag things out -- that's fine -- but the virus itself is coming to an end.
This is absolutely fascinating.
This virus has mutated beautifully:
Whether the virus disappears completely or lays low, ending in a low-virulent endemic, less significant than "seasonal flu,” is yet to be seen.
Right now it would be interesting to know more about how Spanish flu ended.
Look at these four links and the whole thing is becoming very, very clear:
There is a huge amount of valuable information in that third link.
If the Omicron variant confers significant immunity / cross-coverage against the more lethal variants, this pretty much spells the end of Covid-19. One suspects by late spring, the medical story should be over.
By then, the US Supreme Court should have ruled on the various Federal mandates.
Russia’s Gazprom hasn’t booked transit capacity for Monday for natural gas exports via a key pipeline route to Germany, which was sending gas eastwards for a sixth consecutive day. [Sending gas eastwards: normally, Russia supplies Poland and western Europe with natural gas. This year, that pipeline was reversed; natural gas is being sent from Germany to Poland.]
Gazprom has not booked transit export capacity via the Yamal-Europe pipeline via Belarus to Poland and Germany for December 27, Reuters reported on Monday, citing results from a daily auction.
At the same time, gas on the Yamal-Europe pipeline was flowing in the reverse direction from Germany to Poland for a six consecutive day on Monday.
Typically, lower Russian gas deliveries to Europe would lead to a spike in Europe’s benchmark gas prices, but after setting a new record early last week, gas prices in Europe plunged later in the week and continued to slide on Monday, due to forecasts of milder weather, U.S. LNG cargoes flocking to Europe, and low trading activity around the Christmas holiday.
Last Tuesday, European gas prices jumped to an all-time high after gas on the Yamal-Europe pipeline reversed flow eastward and freezing temperatures took hold in many parts of Europe. The benchmark price for Europe at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) surged by 11 percent to a record 162.78 euros per megawatt-hour on December 21.
As prices in Europe soared to records and pushed regional LNG prices way above the Asian LNG benchmark and 14 times higher than the U.S. Henry Hub price, tankers with liquefied natural gas from the United States headed to Europe. Ten LNG tankers from the U.S. have already declared Europe as their destination while another 20 cargoes appear to be crossing the Atlantic en route to Europe.
I assume the above was as factual as we will get. Comments:
A reader wrote:
I was glad to see your comments of ‘disappointing & anti-climactic’. Ifound myself wondering what I was missing when I scanned through it. Ichecked around in several places and nothing really caught my attention,outside of some of the ‘undiscovered’ red numbers, not quantitativelyassessed.I wondered if Lynn Helms shared, publicly, thoughts about the study andfound (through the link below), a little. His comment about the NorthDakota department taking a ‘deeper dive’ may prove to be of far moreinterest. I’ll be keeping my eye out.tas-undiscovered-oil-resources“And we think that’s on the lower side of what the ultimate number is,” headded. Helms said the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources intendsto take a deeper dive into the federal geologists' findings and offer morereactions next year.As you would expect, I’m focused on the future potential of Morton Countyand what it may produce in the centuries to come 😊. In doing so, I didfind several reports I hadn’t previously reviewed. Below are just a coupleof a few recent assessments (April 29,2021) posted:rces-pennsylvanian-tyler-formation-willistonand-gas-resources-upper-paleozoic-strataI look forward to learning more about what the ‘powers that be’ know, oncethey are willing to share. I find any discovery in the entire WillistonBasin to be exciting. Of course, as you know, my hope springs eternal thatactivity, someday, will occur and involve my very small share of mineralrights in Morton County. Filing a Statement of Claim every twenty years,for a mere $20.00 per filing, will keep the dream alive in perpetuity.
My reply:
Thank you for your notes.1. I completely missed the 2021 USGS survey announcement. It was a reader who realized, based on earlier posts, that I had missed it. In addition, it was clear that other readers had also missed it.2. There was no fanfare announcement.3. USGS surveys are done on the basis of existing wells, production, and data from those wells. They had started work on this survey in the 2019 time frame, I believe, and there were hints of periodic updates -- some of which I posted -- but nothing until all of a sudden, the 2021 survey. In 2020, drilling literally came to a stop due to lock downs and Covid, and I would assume most of the survey was done on new wells in 2020. I could be wrong. But there have been almost no second bench Three Forks wells drilled, and very few first bench wells, in the big scheme of things, drilled.4. On top of that, the price of oil was down, and production would have been choked back and then in 2021, when the survey would have been coming to an end, operators were reporting incredibly good wells.5. Bottom line: I think that USGS survey was based on "old" data; and was very, very conservative. I really can't say that on the blog; my detractors (and I have a lot) would suggest I am suggesting that I am smarter than USGS geologists. Not at all. USGS Survey is simply a report based on "current" data. Things can change.6. Anyway, enough of that. I'm inappropriately and eternally optimistic.7. I can't believe 2022 won't be a great year but certainly the tea leaves are very confusing.8. But like you, I'm hoping for a great 2022. Either way, lots of good blogging ahead, I suppose.
Smallpox: eradicated by herd immunity? USA Today.
Because immunity varies with age and not everyone can get vaccinated — such as those who are immunocompromised, have specific allergies or pregnant women with certain types of vaccines — herd immunity is a crucial protective phenomenon. To establish it, one important factor is the number of immunized people within a population has to be at a certain percentage or threshold. According to the WHO, this figure was eight out of every 10 people for smallpox, based on its early eradication effort.
And because pathogens are not confined by geographical borders, this 80% immunization or higher is not a threshold restricted to one population — it has to be shared by all, whether at a local, national or global level. This means if any populations have vaccination rates below the threshold, there is a great risk for disease transmission to other unvaccinated or vulnerable individuals, even in populations with adequate herd immunity, such as in the case with measles outbreaks in recent years.
For smallpox, this homogeneity in vaccination rates across varying populations was only successfully achieved with mass smallpox vaccination, as claimed by the Facebook post.
A second important determinant for herd immunity is how long biological immunity against a pathogen lasts. While immunological memory forms with every new infectious encounter, this can fade over time, which is why booster shots are typically given. Smallpox immunity unfortunately does decline — after five to 10 years — but it is believed vaccinated individuals still have some protection against fatal outcomes should an outbreak, in the very rare event, reappear.
Routine smallpox vaccination in the U.S. was stopped in 1972, after it was declared eradicated. The CDC only recommends the vaccine to lab workers who work with smallpox or smallpox-like viruses, and to those who need long-term protection like military personnel.
That's probably as good a summary I've seen in mainstream media. Which raises two questions:
Ivory Tower: associate professor epidemiology of Yale School of Public Health, a 2018 MacArthur Fellow, --
Covid-19: almost no indication of asymptomatic spread, the NFL chief medical officer. It's as good as any "science" Dr Fauci cites. Link here.
Spanish flu; burned itself out after about four years.
Smallpox: eradicated by herd immunity? USA Today.
Because immunity varies with age and not everyone can get vaccinated — such as those who are immunocompromised, have specific allergies or pregnant women with certain types of vaccines — herd immunity is a crucial protective phenomenon. To establish it, one important factor is the number of immunized people within a population has to be at a certain percentage or threshold. According to the WHO, this figure was eight out of every 10 people for smallpox, based on its early eradication effort.
And because pathogens are not confined by geographical borders, this 80% immunization or higher is not a threshold restricted to one population — it has to be shared by all, whether at a local, national or global level. This means if any populations have vaccination rates below the threshold, there is a great risk for disease transmission to other unvaccinated or vulnerable individuals, even in populations with adequate herd immunity, such as in the case with measles outbreaks in recent years.
For smallpox, this homogeneity in vaccination rates across varying populations was only successfully achieved with mass smallpox vaccination, as claimed by the Facebook post.
A second important determinant for herd immunity is how long biological immunity against a pathogen lasts. While immunological memory forms with every new infectious encounter, this can fade over time, which is why booster shots are typically given. Smallpox immunity unfortunately does decline — after five to 10 years — but it is believed vaccinated individuals still have some protection against fatal outcomes should an outbreak, in the very rare event, reappear.
Routine smallpox vaccination in the U.S. was stopped in 1972, after it was declared eradicated. The CDC only recommends the vaccine to lab workers who work with smallpox or smallpox-like viruses, and to those who need long-term protection like military personnel.
That's probably as good a summary I've seen in mainstream media. Which raises two questions:
Investing: one of the bigger stories I am watching this next year. COP. Link here.
Gasoline demand: US gasoline demand the week before Christmas, through Thursday, was up 5.5% from Thanksgiving week and the highest week of 2021.
Note: I'm a huge advocate of dispensing Ivermectin over-the-counter, like aspirin.
During my training, I read hundreds (thousands?) of research articles like this. The statistics: simply not impressed.
Study:
